182nd Annual Oscar Prediction Post

We're here once again to give our Oscar predictions! Now, on a good year we're lucky to get like 50% of these things right. This is an exceptional year, though, as it's loaded with front runners, especially in the dud categories, so we're hoping for a little more. We'll see as always for Hollywood's Dumbest Night!

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

With all the major necessary awards and truly the cherriest of combos - historical biopic, popular, critically acclaimed, lots of acting noms, a deserved director, this seems like one of the more in the bag predictions of the last few years. What a strange world we're living in. Thanks a lot, Oppenheimer.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Winner: Gladstone

This one's tough. I can see Emma Stone pulling this off, but I also can't see her as being a two-time Academy Award winner. Then again, you've got Christoph Waltz and Mahershala Ali doing these things recently and I doubted them for the same reason. I kind of think KotFM is just too popular to not win anything.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Winner: Murphy

I don't know, I could eat my hat on this. Murphy seems to be the frontrunner but Giamatti is right there. I think after cleaning up BAFTA and SAG there isn't much more wiggle room for Giamatti, and it's got everything the Academy usually likes, AND well deserved for once.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Winner: Randolph

No one seems to talk about how the Academy DEFINITELY gives supporting awards to black folk, particularly black women as a way of saying they're invited to the party but aren't the main show. I think it's racist. I haven't seen The Holdovers and maybe Randolph is a revelation and I'm sure she is actually deserving but it's the same reason the white hero always has black sidekicks in Marvel movies.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Winner: RDJ

I mean, c'mon this would be pretty sweet.

Best Director

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

 Winner: Nolan

It's about time, I just don't think anyone catches him at this point. The Academy has liked to split this, but there aren't really enough viable films contending here to earn that. And Lanthimos probably did the best job, but they're not awarding fucking Yorgos Lanthimos.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

I would have picked something safer like The Holdovers in a vacuum, but this thing just keeps sweeping awards and seems to be the clear favorite. I'm a big May December guy myself, which got to no attention anywhere, but I don't think it can win here. All these films are pretty high profile in an indie writing sense, so it'd be fun anywhere. Except Maestro. Screw that bait.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Winner: American Fiction

Doesn't it feel like this is a category where a film like American Fiction should win? Just outside, but still popular, but not International. I don't think Oppenheimer will totally sweep just because that's really rare, and c'mon, how is Barbie adapted from anything. Bizarre.

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

El Conde was really good! It won't get attention here. And Poor Things is doing more things with the camera than most films. Oppenheimer is the heavy favorite, but again, it's not going to win everything and I think the next biggest can upset here.

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

See, this is where no one gets upset. Oppenheimer is definitely the best nominee here and then we can all move on with our lives.

Best Original Song

"The Fire Inside," Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony
"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)," Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie

Winner: "I'm Just Ken," Barbie

I legit think "I'm Just Ken" can do this, it's the most notable song of the year, everyone knows it, it's top to bottom solid. Everyone thinks the other Barbie song will get it, why bro? It's boring af. I think people say they'll vote with their hearts and minds, but they are really going to vote with their butts. We'll see if I bungle this slam dunk category. So Flamin' Hot was a real movie, eh?

Best Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Oppenheimer

Move on with our lives

Best Production Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Barbie

Barbie had legit the best production design I've seen in a real long time and seems to be leading the pack here. Very deserved and would be an awesome win.

Best Costume Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Winner: Poor Things

Is it weird that I don't think Barbie's costuming is that great? It's not like the production design. I think this has gone to a lot of sci-fi and period pieces in the past and Poor Things fits that bill well, especially if it is actually as loved as the nominations are pointing it out to be.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Winner: Maestro

I picked the one that I want to win the least, which means it will. Oh, you always slap a fake nose on someone and it wins an Oscar. It's stupid. We'll see if this can go to Poor Things or the actually underrated subtlety of Oppenheimer instead,

Best Sound

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Winner: Oppenheimer

Hey, there are some fun nominees here, but dude for the pep rally alone you know Oppenheimer is walking away with this one.

Best Visual Effects

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Winner: Godzilla Minus One

I think this has some more momentum behind it - The Creator is a great second pick but I just don't think it was that widely seen or had a lot of buzz. I also really just want to see Marvel and Tom Cruise stew about being beat by these real low budget flicks.

Best International Feature

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers' Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Winner: The Zone of Interest

Easily the most high profile film here. Done.

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Winner: The Boy and the Heron

As pumped as I was for the first Spider-Verse movie to win, I don't think the sequel pulls it off when there's a new Miyazaki film at play.

Best Animated Short

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Winner: John and Yoko

You're telling me folks aren't going to just vote for the Beatles.

Best Live-Action Short

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Winner: Sugar

Easily the most high profile release, Wes Anderson, big names, people saw it on Netflix. Could be upset, but dang bro playing with fire in a house of matches this one.

Best Documentary Feature

Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Winner: Mariupol

Madripool or whatever sounds good

Best Documentary Short

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Winner: Book Burning

 My stars, my stars, a year where the bobo categories seem obvious? What a world. We'll see, we could all still be super wrong.