NMW's 91st Annual Oscar Live Blog

I can't believe I've been doing this live blog for 91 straight years. In times past we've done...really...really bad here. Let's go at it again!

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Predicted winner: Regina King
Actual Winner: Regina King

Score: 1/1

Yay! Got one right! I haven't seen this movie. I've been really out of it. Regina King has been at this for a long ass time and done all kinds of work, both random, animated, shitty, and brilliant. It's a nice win here.

Best Documentary Feature:

Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Predicted Winner: RBG
Actual Winner: Free Solo
Score: 1/2

I understand this as a documentary on the Millennium Falcon. This looked like it could be picking up steam the last couple weeks and it's exciting to win here. RBG seemed more popular and timely, but I actually just read the National Geographic article on this climbing dude and it seemed amazing. Totally crazy, but amazing and fascinating. Rough losing this for my total score, but what can you do. Jason Mamoa and Helen Mirren need to team up on a rom com or buddy cop flick.

Makeup and Hair:

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Predicted winner: VICE
Actual Winner: VICE
Score: 2/3

I knew this was basically a lock to help my average. Yay VICE! Although it's worth it to hear Aubrey Plaza's Border story. Border is a really weird movie, by the way.

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Predicted Winner: Mary Queen of Scots
Actual Winner: Black Panther
Score: 2/4

It's actually a fantastic presentation choice to play Melissa McCarthy and Brian Tee Henry's speech as totally straight while going nuts with costumes here. That'd damned rare. Reminds me of Ben Stiller as AVABAR (2009).

I can't believe Black Panther won this. It might actually roll tonight. Man, this always goes to some stuffy period piece that no one has ever seen. Of course, Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) pulled this off a few years ago. The costumes in BP were notable and distinct enough to actually make a great impact in the final fight and helped a ton in knowing what the hell was going on. This is solid. 

Production Design:

Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Predicted Winner: Panther
Actual Winner: Panther
Score: 3/5

BP seems to be forming a little roll here. Yay for Hannah Beachler, not enough Black Women have Oscars behind the camera. Is this a great moment for Black Artists or Superhero movies? This looks good for Marvel, too. Good looks all around. It's totally bizarre that this C-level superhero of all people ends up the highest-grossing, most lauded Superhero film ever.

Cinematography:

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Actual Winner: Cuaron
Score: 4/6

Heh, it's pretty clear that the "present awards off camera" controversy is way more pertinent than the "Kevin Hart unapologetically hates gays" controversy. I guess this is just easier to laugh off. This is Cuaron's first step towards grabbing four distinct Oscars tonight, but I'd say this is the only one he really deserves. Roma is unspeakably beautiful, but also the most boring film of the year.

Sound Editing:

Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Predicted Winner: First Man
Actual Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Score: 4/7

Hrmm...could this mean that BR looks good for BP or BA nod? Looking back on it, I think I picked Bale over Rami for spite because for some reason I'm not into a stilted performance in a shit film made by an unrepentant rapist director. Oh well. I need to learn. I thought Black Panther might have gone for this, the way it began to march on technical awards. This has just been such a First Man - type category. Oh well.

Sound Mixing:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Actual Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Score: 4/8

My underrating of Bohemian Rhapsody is coming to a head. This usually goes to a musical-type film, and yeah, it must have been tough syncing up Freddie Mercury's vocals with Rami Malek's acting. Right. If there was any doubt that no one actually cares about A Star is Born, this is it.

Also, clearly popular films are winning, we do not need a specific category.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Predicted Winner: Roma
Actual Winner: Roma
Score: 5/9

I don't know what would have happened if Cold War or Shoplifters had won. It's like when Toy Story 3 (2010) was nominated for both Best Picture and Best Animated Picture. Like, obviously it's winning this. I forgot - this means that Cuaron could grab five separate Oscars tonight. I kind of want that to happen now. Did he make five distinct speeches?

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Score: 6/10

It seems like no one has a good speech ready this year. Where's Jimmy Kimmel to ease our nerves? It should be pretty much understood that Ottman saved this movie after Singer abandoned it. Deserved, for once and Rhapsody is looking pretty good to do some great things tonight.


Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali
Actual Winner: Mahershala Ali
Score: 7/11

You know, this ceremony can move along pretty fast when they ditch all the crappy pizza and fan stunts and other bizarre montages and ode to Musicals or whatever. It's not that hard to do, people. Let the nominees do their thing and trust them for being entertainers. This is actually a pretty compelling category this year. Richard E. Grant is such a creepster on screen but seems like he's having so much fun this season. Adam Driver needs an Oscar eventually. Sam Elliott's time might be up. This was totally a lead role, but since Ali is black, it's supporting. Green Book might do some things in this ceremony yet.


Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Actual Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Score: 8/12

Yeah! I can't believe Spider-Verse pulled this off! This is great that Phil Lord and Chris Miller actually have an Oscar now! This was one of my favourites of last year and is a totally underrated, phenomenal achievement.

Animated Short:

"Animal Behaviour", Alison Snowden, David Fine
"Bao", Domee Shi
"Late Afternoon", Louise Bagnall
"One Small Step", Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
"Weekends", Trevor Jimenez

Predicted Winner: "Bao"
Actual Winner: "Bao"
Score: 9/13

Wow, I actually got this one right! I'm gonna have to go back and see how often I pull this one off. Ahh - this is the third time I've gotten it right in my ten years of doing this - including two years in a row! Now that's something!

Best Documentary Short Subject:

"Black Sheep", Ed Perkins
"End Game", Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
"Lifeboat", Skye Fitzgerald
"A Night at the Garden", Marshall Curry
"Period. End of Sentence.", Rayka Zehtabchi

Predicted Winner: "End Game"
Actual Winner: "Period. End of Sentence"
Score: 9/14

I...I really should have picked this one. It's not about grammar, but about Indian women on periods or something, but it's all kinds of awesome.

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: Thanos
Actual Winner: First Man
Score: 9/15

Ugh. I should have known. This category has been really wonky lately. They tend not to reward any mocap achievements and actually steer clear of blockbusters. Only two superhero films have won ever, those being Spider-Man 2 (2004) and Superman (1978). Yeah...Keep in mind that no Transformers or Planet of the Apes movie ever won this award.



I haven't talked much about other presenters or musical performances, but hot damn, just give GaGa the Oscar now.

Best Live Action Short Film:

"Detainment", Vincent Lambe
"Fauve", Jeremy Comte
"Marguerite", Marianne Farley
"Mother", Rodrigo Sorogoyen
"Skin", Guy Nattiv

Predicted Winner: "Marguerite"
Actual Winner: "Skin"
Score: 9/16

Meh, this was suddenly kind of looking like it would go "Skin"'s way. Alright. Sounds good. Whatever, Short Films.

Original Screenplay:

The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Predicted Winner: Deb and Tony
Actual Winner: Green Book
Score: 9/17

Suddenly I'm taking a deep dive. A deep deep dive of wrong predictions. I thought this would be the one category to go to The Favourite to make up for losing everything else, but it looks like Green Book is earning that distinction instead. I'm okay with the director of Dumb & Dumber (1994) getting an Oscar. This has been a weird trend lately, joining Spike Jonze and Adam McKay as these once weird comedy guys suddenly pulling it together.

Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Predicted Winner: Spike
Actual Winner: Spike Lee!
Score: 10/18

Let's start talking worst scores ever. 2010, my first year doing this, I batted 0.500, and have had years where I got 13/24. It's real fun for Spike to win and to have Sam Jackson present it! Man I love Spike Lee. Go Knicks!

Original Score:

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Predicted Winner: Black Panther
Actual Winner: Black Panther
Score: 11/19

I'm remembering how much I enjoyed BlacKkKlansman's score. As for ME, I'm pumped to have called this one as well, and maybe I won't totally be in the craphole. Black Panther is having a fantastic night.


Original Song:

"All The Stars" from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
"I’ll Fight" from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
"Shallow" from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Predicted winner: "Shallow"
Actual Winner: "Shallow"
Score: 12/20

I know he's been in a ton of other movies, but it's actually a little weird to hear Chadwick Boseman not speak in a Wakandan accent. Does anyone know which country the Wakandan accent comes from other than general African? Lady GaGa is now an Oscar winner. I don't think she'll pick up a twofer tonight, but this is damned fun. If I win out, I'll end with 16, which beats my average. To be honest, all these major categories could go any way.

Damn, Jennifer Hudson is really into this speech.


Why is the whitest woman of all time talking about BlacKkKlansman?

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book


Predicted Winner: Bale
Actual Winner: Rami
Score: 12/21

Should have called this. I really just wanted Bale I suppose. But more and more the last few weeks this seemed like a given. Probably my least favourite actor and performance of the lot.

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?


Predicted Winner: Glenn Close
Actual Winner: Olivia Colman
Score: 12/22

Man I'm pumped for this. But dammit Glenn Close. I knew Glenn Close was totally overrated and Oscar doesn't care about career achievement awards anymore.


Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Actual Winner: Cuaron
Score: 13/23

So, Mexican directors have won five out of the past six Best Director awards. Has anyone else noticed this? Cuaron is fantastic, this movie sucks, but it's nice to see him honored. Now we'll see if he can pull of Best Picture as well. And I'd still like to see Spike or Yorgos pick something up one day.

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Predicted Winner: Roma
Actual Winner: Green Book

Uhhh....okay. Really? Why? After all the success of Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody? After all the early hype and zeitgeist of A Star is Born? After all the critical acclaim and praise for Roma? After the more cutting and cunning BlacKkKlansman? This is damned baffling. The only thing I can really say is this is a movie that white people felt damned good about voting for.

Didn't like, a lot of people hate this movie? Like, including the family of the guy it's based on? At any rate, this makes five years in a row where I have failed to predict Best Picture. Have we really had that much nonsense? Yeah, in a sense. Spotlight (2015) is a good movie but still feels like it didn't have momentum, I was on the wrong side of the La La Land / Moonlight (2016) kerfuffle, and I still can't believe that shitty fish-fucking movie Shape of Water (2017) won.

Julia Roberts seemed to not know she was supposed to end the show. What a forgettable ceremony.

FINAL SCORE: 13/24

Great. Grand. Same score as in 2015 and 2017. A very average year. Time to move on with my life and start a blog about baseball or something instead.

Norwegian Morning Wood's Official Oscar Predictions

Well folks it's time once again for our 100% accurate, never-fail Oscar Predictions. The 91st Academy Award Ceremony is three weeks from last night and we have all the hottest bits right here awaiting you.

We've done this for a while now. Here's our all-time record:

2010: 12/24
2011: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2013: 14/24
2014: 20/24
2015: 13/24
2016: 14/24
2017: 13/24
2018: 16/24

Long-term average: 14.7 / 24

That's certainly not great. We can predict about that much. This year is really special because I haven't paid attention at all because there are a lot better things to do with life. Nevertheless, it's time to put myself out there and see what we can come up with. It's actually looking like a weird year in a few categories, so here goes nothing:

Best Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Predicted Winner: Roma

I have gotten this wrong four years in a row. Why are you still reading this website? A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody seem to be the other big contenders, but Roma has the precursor and festival momentum. Now, I hated Roma, but I'd be okay with its win here, especially over Rhapsody, which seems to have massive populist appeal for a movie that to me, didn't live up to the life of Freddie.

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Predicted Winner: Bale

This could go to Rami Malek, who hasn't won all that many awards, but two big ones in SAG and Golden Globes. Bale picked up a globe as well, because of course, Bohemian Rhapsody isn't nearly the musical comedy that VICE is. Still, I like Bale's chances a little bit more. The Academy may love a gay musical biopic, but they'll also love body transformations and heavy leftist political propaganda. I've already expressed my distaste for Rhapsody for not going gay enough, which means I'll likely get this wrong and Malek will win.

Or ever the bridesmaid Bradley Cooper will win to make up for losing Best Picture and missing out entirely on a Director nod. But history isn't so kind to him.

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Predicted Winner: Glenn Close

Colman and GaGa presented far more memeable roles in far more interesting movies, but this just feels like a long overdue Glenn Close award. But for what, actually? 101 Dalmations (1996)? Glenn Close is like someone who you think has had this legendary career but who really hasn't. Still, it feels right to give her the award here. Or it could be like Michael Keaton a few years back who gets totally screwed. With enough precursor support, we feel safe, though.

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali

Even though he just won, this seems like another safe bet. It's that classic bullshit where the white actor gets Lead and the black actor gets Supporting. How is this a thing? Richard E. Grant is leading a bit more in precursor awards, but the easygoing charm of Mahershala coupled with the intensity of his roles and him having a bit of a moment right now with True Detective on the horizon feels right.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Predicted winner: Regina King

It's become fairly standard to give this to a black woman. Seriously, even when the Academy is not being racist, it's being racist. Amy Adams has enough nominations behind her without a win to make this a little bit of a toss-up, as does previous winners Weisz and Stone. Regina makes the most sense, especially since Beale Street is the kind of lauded, underseen, under-awarded film that everyone seems to like.

Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

For the first time in a long time I'm betting this category lines up with Best Picture. I should probably go with Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Picture, actually. Precedent be damned! Cuaron will have a good night.

Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Predicted winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Somehow this might be a really good, justified night for this film that should have had way more recognition than it ended up getting. I named it one of my favorites of the year, it's done fantastic at the DGA and Annie awards and could walk away with a statue here. For once, I'm pumped.

Animated Short:

"Animal Behaviour", Alison Snowden, David Fine
"Bao", Domee Shi
"Late Afternoon", Louise Bagnall
"One Small Step", Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
"Weekends", Trevor Jimenez

Predicted winner: Bao

By far the most emotionally complex and most widely seen, this seems like Bao's bag. This category, however, is totally insane to predict and no one ever gets it right. Based on my thirty seconds of research, though, I 100% guarantee it!

Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Predicted Winner: Spike

Somehow Spike Lee has never won an Oscar, and was only nominated in this category 28 years ago with Do the Right Thing (1989). BlacKkKlansman was pretty popular, widely nominated, and awarded, and likely won't walk away with much else. This seems really fitting. Upsets could be Brad Cooper or Barry, or anyone here, really.

Original Screenplay:

The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Vice, Adam McKay

Predicted Winner: Deb and Tony

This could go a lot of ways. McKay has been here before and VICE is a little better written than The Big Short (2015). Cuaron could sweep everything. This could be a good consolation for First Reformed, which otherwise has dip this ceremony. Green Book and Favourite are both movies that may not garner much else. We lean towards The Favourite - Yorgos seems to be on a roll with respected, witty, and very original work, even though he didn't actually write this one.

Cinematography:

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Okay, as much as I hated Roma, it's the most beautiful movie ever and if Cuaron doesn't win, there's no justice.

Best Documentary Feature:

Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Predicted Winner: RBG

With Won't You Be My Neighbor out, the presumptive heir is RBG. It seems like too perfect not to win, right? It's timely, well-done, popular, and widely known. Minding the Gap has won more critics awards and Free Solo sounds like that Star Wars movie, so there could be upsets.

Best Documentary Short Subject:

"Black Sheep", Ed Perkins
"End Game", Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
"Lifeboat", Skye Fitzgerald
"A Night at the Garden", Marshall Curry
"Period. End of Sentence.", Rayka Zehtabchi

Predicted Winner: "End Game"

I was actually really pumped for a documentary about grammatical periods. It is not what that movie is about. This could be anything. End Game seems to be the biggest heart-string tugger.

Best Live Action Short Film:

"Detainment", Vincent Lambe
"Fauve", Jeremy Comte
"Marguerite", Marianne Farley
"Mother", Rodrigo Sorogoyen
"Skin", Guy Nattiv

Predicted Winner: "Marguerite"

"Fauve" sounds like the coolest and "Skin" has the most star power, but "Marguerite" seems to have the most love. Good enough for us.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Predicted Winner: Roma

Right? Like, how can it be Best Picture and not Best Foreign Picture.

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman, Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Ottman
Green Book, Patrick J. Don Vito
The Favourite, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Vice, Hank Corwin

Predicted Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

I don't think a movie can be nominated this much and be such a populist film without winning anything. Most critics are thinking VICE, and we'll see, but considering what a mess the production of BH was, the editing really works, especially in the final LiveAID scene.

Sound Editing:

Black Panther, Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody, John Warhurst
First Man, Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place, Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
Roma, Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Predicted Winner: First Man

First Man really fits into that Gravity (2013), Arrival (2016), Dunkirk (2017) kind of feel, but A Quiet Place could get in there. But there's really no sound in that damn movie. I should also note that each of those films was far more popular than First Man, which gives me a little hesitation.

Sound Mixing:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Predicted winner: A Star Is Born

It's always a rule until it's not. This was a common musical category for a while, but it's lost a bit of a step with La La Land (2016) and Inside Llewyn Davis (2013) missing out recently. In that case, it fits that First Man technical bill again, but no one liked that damn movie. I'm not hinging my bets on two losses here. Black Panther will probably sweep, but big blockbusters don't tend to do well here.

Production Design:

Black Panther, Hannah Beachler
First Man, Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
The Favourite, Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
Mary Poppins Returns, John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma, Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Predicted Winner: Panther

This award has gone to big populist movies a lot lately, and BP is original and intricate enough to earn this award.

Original Score:

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Predicted winner: Black Panther

I have not listened to this. Isle of Dogs stands out in an otherwise muddled movie, but enough people might picture the Black Panther sound track to pick that. Desplat has won two of the past four awards in this category. Beale Street is cruising the precursors, so we'll see if I eat my words. But I always follow precursors and lose. Let's go Panther!

Original Song:

"All The Stars" from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
"I’ll Fight" from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
"Shallow" from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Predicted winner: "Shallow"

No commentary.

Makeup and Hair:

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Predicted winner: VICE

C'mon. I need this to make up for my other terrible predictions.

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mary Zophres
Black Panther, Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite, Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns, Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots, Alexandra Byrne

Predicted Winner: Mary Queen of Scots

Listen, this is always some random fucking winner except for when Mad Max (2015) inexplicably won, so we're going with that. There's also only two or three costume designers who ever win, and Byrne won back in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age. See? You don't remember that damn movie. That's what this category is.

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Winner: Thanos

Like, legit that movie's effects were amazing.

That's it, folks. Stay tuned to see what we got right and what we got horribly, horribly wrong!