Stay Tuned at 8:30 pm New York Time for all the fun and pedantry!
For the record, here are my predictions, dated 31 January, 2017.
11:44 pm: Listen, the rest goes in chronological order, but three and a quarter hours in I thought I ought to make the note that should be obvious - be sure to refresh this page after each category for my inane, angry thoughts over my failed predictions. America!
8:31 pm: Ugh. Over "Got the Feeling" or whatever this horrible Song of Summer 2016 was. I can never even remember its generic title.
8:35 pm: You'd think Jimmy Fallon was hosting.
8:36 pm: So quick for a Mel Gibson crack.
8:38 pm: HAHAHA even quicker for a Kimmel / Damon crack. That's really the best thing Kimmel has going for him in his show, so it's pretty natural that continues.
8:41 pm: Jimmy's nailing the "None of us saw any of these films" schtick which is, c'mon - dead on.
8:43 pm: Love Hollywood's love of itself. And Meryl Streep. But that's also lame criticism. What, should Hollywood not love itself?
8:51 pm: Alright, let's go. Supporting Actor.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Actual Winner: Mahershala Ali
Score: 1/1
First category, first not-really-a-surprise despite quite a few upsets in the lead-up awards. This always seemed Ali's to lose, and it's great that he's finally validated here. Ali's had a great year with this and Daredevil and I'm sure other stuff. I'd be excited to see what else this guy can do. So far largely apolitical, but I'm sure that will shift soon.
8:56 pm:
Best Makeup and Hairstying
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Actual Winner: Suicide Squad
Score: 1/2
Is it "Ooo-vay?" I've been saying "oh-v" forever. Well, we're here. Oscar-winning Suicide Squad. This is a move I don't think anyone saw, because generally this ought to at least go towards the big blockbuster that everyone liked. I suppose Diablo and Harley get it. Or is this really for dressing up Jared Leto? Ugh.
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Predicted Winner: Jackie
Actual Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Score: 1/3
I almost never look up during the ceremony. 90% of my time tonight is spent re-italicizing movie titles when my HTML format breaks. Listen, one for three ain't great. This also seemed like a race between Jackie and La La Land, but I guess that didn't happen. This bodes well for Fantastic Beasts' efforts towards Production Design and the first chink in La La Land's armor? Stay tuned!
9:08 pm:
Best Documentary
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Predicted Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Actual Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Score: 2/4
Okay, I feel a bit better. Life Animated should have known to throw some Black People in there. I just saw O.J. this past weekend and it was one of the most engrossing eight hours of my life. I still can't really understand how it's even allowed to be here - totally a TV mini-series despite its limited theatrical run. It's now the longest-running Oscar winner ever, and good on the Academy for still recognizing the great film. Also it's totally insane that O.J. is still in the news. That trial really is something, isn't it?
9:14 pm: Nice cut to Hailee Steinfeld for some reason when the Rock wants to sing from Moana.
9:16 pm: Time to do some hardcore phone checking.
9:17 pm: Listen, this just ISN'T "Let it Go."
9:27 pm: I need to check my timestamps from other years. Four categories down in the first hour. SWEET.
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Actual Winner: Arrival
Score: 2/5
La La Land has yet to win, and the Arrival nod here isn't necessarily surprising - it's very much in line with where this category has gone in the past, but Hacksaw just felt like the more natural choice. Tonight is already a foregone shitshow - I'm going to predict that I won't be anywhere near my best prediction year. Also notable that La La Land is already 0/2.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 2/6
So, Hacksaw does come out with a sound win, but not the category many and myself predicted! This is an important award - I have to win out to match my best year ever and La La Land now cannot match Titanic (1997), Ben Hur (1969) and Return of the King (2003) for highest Oscar count, since its 14 nominations include two in the same category for best song.
9:36 pm: Vince Vaughn is at a weird time in his life. Putting that out there. Good on ya, Jackie Chan.
9:41 pm: Fuck Mark Rylance. BFG my ass.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Predicted Winner: Viola Davis
Actual Winner: Viola Davis
Score: 3/7
Thank goodness for the gimmes. Good on Viola, and good on making this category a slam dunk for terrible predictors like myself. Hey - if I can just cruise through seventeen more categories we're good!
9:55 pm: This is when the ceremony really digs in and refuses to end. No one in America or the world cares about what Charlize Theron thinks about The Apartment (1960).
9:56 pm: I looked up last year - at this point we had gotten through eleven categories and I was 7/11. UGHHHH
9:57 pm:
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Predicted Winner: Toni Erdmann
Actual Winner: The Salesman
Score: 3/8
This is now actually a big award, since the director of The Salesman was unable to come to the country because of Trump. No excuses, because up to today I still thought Erdmann had the populist edge, but yeah, it became more and more obvious that this was all Salesman. Fuck! Fuck The Salesman. I identify with your plight, pro. But fuck this shit, this year has been absolutely awful so far.
10:05 pm: What the hell is this Jack the Ripper Time Travel show?
10:09 pm:
Best Animated Short Subject
"Blind Vaysha"
"Borrowed Time"
"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"
"Pearl"
"Piper"
Predicted Winner: "Borrowed Time"
Actual Winner: "Piper"
Score: 3/9
You gotta be fucking kidding me - Pixar / Disney never wins when I think they're actually going to. "Piper" was the long-time favorite here but I never bought in. This is shaping up to be a decently awful night for me.
10:12 pm:
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Predicted Winner: Zootopia
Actual Winner: Zootopia
Score: 4/10
Jeez this banter is stilted. Good win for Zootopia. It's crazy what Disney has been able to do in this category lately. I'm really glad Kubo didn't rise up, even if it probably deserved to.
10:14 pm:
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Predicted Winner: Arrival
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 4/11
This is fairly undeserved for La La Land. This seemed like it'd be Fantastic Beasts' if anything now. A lot of people out there thought this would be the one to lose it, although now that La La avoids the shut-out, will it keep rolling on from here? I haven't predicted it for much more than the obvious categories coming up. This ceremony is still a huge question mark.
10:22 pm: I want to note that I've been YouTubing Norm MacDonald O.J. jokes on every commercial, song, and Cheryl Boone Isaacs speech since Made in America won.
10:32 pm: See, we can't go 10 minutes here between awards.
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book
Actual Winner: The Jungle Book
Score: 5/12
I always thought this was a given, although it seemed to stump a lot of pundits who for some reason thought it might lean towards the horribly misguided Rogue One. This is probably the most well-deserved award of the night and could very well save my ass.
10:36 pm: Best presenters of the night - Seth Rogen and Michael J. Fox.
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 5/13
Whelp. I'm boned. So damn boned. La La Land just is not sweeping, and somehow Hacksaw Ridge is raking up some nods here! I don't think it's actually nominated for too much other awards tonight, actually, but there is apparently some love in the room for this thing. It's bizarre. This flick did nothing for me. I'm cautious about even Moonlight's chances now.
10:43 pm:
Best Documentary Short Subject
"Extremis"
"4.1 Miles"
"Joe's Violin"
"Watani: My Homeland"
"The White Helmets"
Predicted Winner: "Extremis
Actual Winner: "The White Helmets"
Score: 5/14
Okay, whatever, fuck this. Who knows how to call these categories. O.J. did it.
10:49 pm:
Best Live Action Short
"Ennemis Entreniers"
"La Femme et le TGV"
"Silent Nights"
"Sing"
"Timecode"
Predicted Winner: "Timecode"
Actual Winner: "Sing"
Score: 5/15
Do American directors make short films anymore? Ever? I think I was mistaking "Timecode" for Timecop (1994). If I win out, I'm going 14/24, which is dismal. This could be my worst year ever, which is really depressing. Deeper in this race it really seemed like it was "Sing" or nothing. Maybe it's foolish to put out predictions a week after nominations are announced, but I'll conform to that challenge!
10:51 pm: I'm sure I'm the only one who googled what year Timecop was made during this year's ceremony.
10:59 pm:
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 6/16
Well that's a relief. No Lion upset tonight. We should all strive to pronounce La La Land the way Javier Bardem pronounces La La Land. There's still a lot of potential to go here I suppose. This was all that evening one-take I assume. Also this dude is totally an uglier Brad Pitt.
11:14 pm: I definitely just thought Sam Jackson said the best movies "leave you coming." Okay then. Humming. Humming, people.
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 7/17
I'm wondering if they left all the La La Land favored categories for later in the ceremony so it seems like it's won a ton. Anyway, maybe I can break 10!
11:16 pm:
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Predicted Winner: "City of Stars"
Actual Winner: "City of Stars"
Score: 8/18
Feeling a little better. Slightly, but all these are obvious now. "City of Stars" is as good a song that's been attached to a film for a long time, and it's great that it's emerged through a bunch of tracks that in any other year would have been fearsome to compete with.
11:20 pm: An already long ceremony is about to go till 4 am honouring all we lost last year. Too dark?
11:29 pm: The ceremony really should be only Matt Damon jokes.
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Actual Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Score: 9/19
Alright, I'll admit this was huge. A huge win. FOR ME. Finally, the writer of The Adventures of Rocky and Bulwinkle (2000) has an Academy Award. Good on Kenny Lonergan, whose career has wildly oscillated between good and shit.
11:33 pm: Aww, good for you, Amy Adams, you got to come to the ceremony anyway. I'm sure that makes you feel great!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Moonlight
Actual Winner: Moonlight
Score: 10/20
And just like that I'm back up to a cool 50%. Only big awards left - at this rate my running prediction is probably 13/24, maybe 12/24 - I have no confidence over my Best Acting predictions. Also, great job Barry Jenkins for sneaking one for Moonlight, which for a moment looked like it didn't have much going for it. It's possible he still gets Best Director, but this is likely a consolation prize.
11:37 pm: Do you kind of feel like Kimmel's chasing that Ellen DeGeneres Pizza selfie moment that was completely sublime in 2014? Or just acknowledging that the best way to win over this starving crowd is feeding them all night?
11:42 pm:
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Chazelle
Actual Winner: Chazelle
Score: 11/21
This is all kinds of amazing. Good for Damien. It's almost a guarantee now that La La Land goes on to win BP instead of splitting like this category has done with the big one over the past few years. I know a few were predicting Barry Jenkins for that precise reason. Now, though, things appear to be falling into place.
11:47 pm: I'll admit that although this ceremony is somehow taking longer, I'm very appreciative of the avoidance of going through all the actors and all the Best Picture nominees and all the other crap this ceremony usually fills itself with.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Actual Winner: Casey Affleck
Score: 12/22
It'd be cool to see Vigio Morgenstein get an Oscar some day. BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY! So, that was scary for a bit but I'm not guaranteed at least 50%. I really thought Denzel had that for a second, but I guess Casey pulls it off. I'm glad I stuck with the original frontrunner pick. Never doubt! Until it fails, which it does all the time. I'm pretty confident about coasting from here on out.
11:54 pm: I wonder how Halle Berry feels about seeing her 2003 self up there winning an Oscar. Not like she looks any worse, but like, that was definitely a different career back then.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone
Actual Winner: Emma Stone
Score: 13/23
Huppert was visibly pissed. Great for Emma. Now Jonah Hill really needs that Oscar. Leo looks like a bronze god. I'm pumped that my tally has rallied back from a whole big steaming pile of shit.
12:03 pm: Amazing that those two are still kicking around, looking pretty good. Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway, for future, non-live readings of this post.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
FINAL SCORE: 14/24
Amazing, if not completely predictable win for La La Land, which finishes with seven Oscars for the night - pretty well-rounded, too. More importantly, I finish with 14/24, which in my eight years of doing this, is the fourth time I've done so. The technical categories this year really tripped me up, as they did somewhat with Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) last year. That said, I went 5/15 for the first...
HOLY SHIT Warren Beatty pulled a Steve Harvey
soooo 12:12 pm: yeah. Yeah, this is nuts. I'm going to keep everything up here I was mindlessly writing when I thought La La Land had won - which it's totally insane that it didn't, but time to make some adjustments!
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Moonlight
FINAL SCORE: 13/24
Jimmy doing a nice improv here. And I'm down to 13/14, which I nailed in 2015. Not great. I was about to say I went 5/15 for the first fifteen categories and then 9/9, but make that 8/9, which kind of sucks. What more can you ask for? I suppose not have 800-year old Warren Beatty reading the Best Picture Winner? It's kind of awesome that young people will now know who Warren Beatty is. This is stunning. Not nearly as stunning as Hacksaw Ridge winning for Editing, but pretty crazy.
I don't think I could have done much better. If I had made these predictions today I probably would have gone with "Sing", "Piper", and The Salesman, so maybe that pushes me to 16, but that's still kind of pathetic. This is all what makes the Oscars an exciting event - no one can really predict this shit. So, a hard-fought 13/24 this year to really accentuate my long-term average. Here's to next year!
For the record, here are my predictions, dated 31 January, 2017.
11:44 pm: Listen, the rest goes in chronological order, but three and a quarter hours in I thought I ought to make the note that should be obvious - be sure to refresh this page after each category for my inane, angry thoughts over my failed predictions. America!
8:31 pm: Ugh. Over "Got the Feeling" or whatever this horrible Song of Summer 2016 was. I can never even remember its generic title.
8:35 pm: You'd think Jimmy Fallon was hosting.
8:36 pm: So quick for a Mel Gibson crack.
8:38 pm: HAHAHA even quicker for a Kimmel / Damon crack. That's really the best thing Kimmel has going for him in his show, so it's pretty natural that continues.
8:41 pm: Jimmy's nailing the "None of us saw any of these films" schtick which is, c'mon - dead on.
8:43 pm: Love Hollywood's love of itself. And Meryl Streep. But that's also lame criticism. What, should Hollywood not love itself?
8:51 pm: Alright, let's go. Supporting Actor.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Actual Winner: Mahershala Ali
Score: 1/1
First category, first not-really-a-surprise despite quite a few upsets in the lead-up awards. This always seemed Ali's to lose, and it's great that he's finally validated here. Ali's had a great year with this and Daredevil and I'm sure other stuff. I'd be excited to see what else this guy can do. So far largely apolitical, but I'm sure that will shift soon.
8:56 pm:
Best Makeup and Hairstying
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Predicted Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Actual Winner: Suicide Squad
Score: 1/2
Is it "Ooo-vay?" I've been saying "oh-v" forever. Well, we're here. Oscar-winning Suicide Squad. This is a move I don't think anyone saw, because generally this ought to at least go towards the big blockbuster that everyone liked. I suppose Diablo and Harley get it. Or is this really for dressing up Jared Leto? Ugh.
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Predicted Winner: Jackie
Actual Winner: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Score: 1/3
I almost never look up during the ceremony. 90% of my time tonight is spent re-italicizing movie titles when my HTML format breaks. Listen, one for three ain't great. This also seemed like a race between Jackie and La La Land, but I guess that didn't happen. This bodes well for Fantastic Beasts' efforts towards Production Design and the first chink in La La Land's armor? Stay tuned!
9:08 pm:
Best Documentary
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
Predicted Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Actual Winner: O.J.: Made in America
Score: 2/4
Okay, I feel a bit better. Life Animated should have known to throw some Black People in there. I just saw O.J. this past weekend and it was one of the most engrossing eight hours of my life. I still can't really understand how it's even allowed to be here - totally a TV mini-series despite its limited theatrical run. It's now the longest-running Oscar winner ever, and good on the Academy for still recognizing the great film. Also it's totally insane that O.J. is still in the news. That trial really is something, isn't it?
9:14 pm: Nice cut to Hailee Steinfeld for some reason when the Rock wants to sing from Moana.
9:16 pm: Time to do some hardcore phone checking.
9:17 pm: Listen, this just ISN'T "Let it Go."
9:27 pm: I need to check my timestamps from other years. Four categories down in the first hour. SWEET.
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Actual Winner: Arrival
Score: 2/5
La La Land has yet to win, and the Arrival nod here isn't necessarily surprising - it's very much in line with where this category has gone in the past, but Hacksaw just felt like the more natural choice. Tonight is already a foregone shitshow - I'm going to predict that I won't be anywhere near my best prediction year. Also notable that La La Land is already 0/2.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 2/6
So, Hacksaw does come out with a sound win, but not the category many and myself predicted! This is an important award - I have to win out to match my best year ever and La La Land now cannot match Titanic (1997), Ben Hur (1969) and Return of the King (2003) for highest Oscar count, since its 14 nominations include two in the same category for best song.
9:36 pm: Vince Vaughn is at a weird time in his life. Putting that out there. Good on ya, Jackie Chan.
9:41 pm: Fuck Mark Rylance. BFG my ass.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Predicted Winner: Viola Davis
Actual Winner: Viola Davis
Score: 3/7
Thank goodness for the gimmes. Good on Viola, and good on making this category a slam dunk for terrible predictors like myself. Hey - if I can just cruise through seventeen more categories we're good!
9:55 pm: This is when the ceremony really digs in and refuses to end. No one in America or the world cares about what Charlize Theron thinks about The Apartment (1960).
9:56 pm: I looked up last year - at this point we had gotten through eleven categories and I was 7/11. UGHHHH
9:57 pm:
Best Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Predicted Winner: Toni Erdmann
Actual Winner: The Salesman
Score: 3/8
This is now actually a big award, since the director of The Salesman was unable to come to the country because of Trump. No excuses, because up to today I still thought Erdmann had the populist edge, but yeah, it became more and more obvious that this was all Salesman. Fuck! Fuck The Salesman. I identify with your plight, pro. But fuck this shit, this year has been absolutely awful so far.
10:05 pm: What the hell is this Jack the Ripper Time Travel show?
10:09 pm:
Best Animated Short Subject
"Blind Vaysha"
"Borrowed Time"
"Pear Cider and Cigarettes"
"Pearl"
"Piper"
Predicted Winner: "Borrowed Time"
Actual Winner: "Piper"
Score: 3/9
You gotta be fucking kidding me - Pixar / Disney never wins when I think they're actually going to. "Piper" was the long-time favorite here but I never bought in. This is shaping up to be a decently awful night for me.
10:12 pm:
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Predicted Winner: Zootopia
Actual Winner: Zootopia
Score: 4/10
Jeez this banter is stilted. Good win for Zootopia. It's crazy what Disney has been able to do in this category lately. I'm really glad Kubo didn't rise up, even if it probably deserved to.
10:14 pm:
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Predicted Winner: Arrival
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 4/11
This is fairly undeserved for La La Land. This seemed like it'd be Fantastic Beasts' if anything now. A lot of people out there thought this would be the one to lose it, although now that La La avoids the shut-out, will it keep rolling on from here? I haven't predicted it for much more than the obvious categories coming up. This ceremony is still a huge question mark.
10:22 pm: I want to note that I've been YouTubing Norm MacDonald O.J. jokes on every commercial, song, and Cheryl Boone Isaacs speech since Made in America won.
10:32 pm: See, we can't go 10 minutes here between awards.
Best Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Winner: The Jungle Book
Actual Winner: The Jungle Book
Score: 5/12
I always thought this was a given, although it seemed to stump a lot of pundits who for some reason thought it might lean towards the horribly misguided Rogue One. This is probably the most well-deserved award of the night and could very well save my ass.
10:36 pm: Best presenters of the night - Seth Rogen and Michael J. Fox.
Best Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Score: 5/13
Whelp. I'm boned. So damn boned. La La Land just is not sweeping, and somehow Hacksaw Ridge is raking up some nods here! I don't think it's actually nominated for too much other awards tonight, actually, but there is apparently some love in the room for this thing. It's bizarre. This flick did nothing for me. I'm cautious about even Moonlight's chances now.
10:43 pm:
Best Documentary Short Subject
"Extremis"
"4.1 Miles"
"Joe's Violin"
"Watani: My Homeland"
"The White Helmets"
Predicted Winner: "Extremis
Actual Winner: "The White Helmets"
Score: 5/14
Okay, whatever, fuck this. Who knows how to call these categories. O.J. did it.
10:49 pm:
Best Live Action Short
"Ennemis Entreniers"
"La Femme et le TGV"
"Silent Nights"
"Sing"
"Timecode"
Predicted Winner: "Timecode"
Actual Winner: "Sing"
Score: 5/15
Do American directors make short films anymore? Ever? I think I was mistaking "Timecode" for Timecop (1994). If I win out, I'm going 14/24, which is dismal. This could be my worst year ever, which is really depressing. Deeper in this race it really seemed like it was "Sing" or nothing. Maybe it's foolish to put out predictions a week after nominations are announced, but I'll conform to that challenge!
10:51 pm: I'm sure I'm the only one who googled what year Timecop was made during this year's ceremony.
10:59 pm:
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 6/16
Well that's a relief. No Lion upset tonight. We should all strive to pronounce La La Land the way Javier Bardem pronounces La La Land. There's still a lot of potential to go here I suppose. This was all that evening one-take I assume. Also this dude is totally an uglier Brad Pitt.
11:14 pm: I definitely just thought Sam Jackson said the best movies "leave you coming." Okay then. Humming. Humming, people.
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
Score: 7/17
I'm wondering if they left all the La La Land favored categories for later in the ceremony so it seems like it's won a ton. Anyway, maybe I can break 10!
11:16 pm:
Best Original Song
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Predicted Winner: "City of Stars"
Actual Winner: "City of Stars"
Score: 8/18
Feeling a little better. Slightly, but all these are obvious now. "City of Stars" is as good a song that's been attached to a film for a long time, and it's great that it's emerged through a bunch of tracks that in any other year would have been fearsome to compete with.
11:20 pm: An already long ceremony is about to go till 4 am honouring all we lost last year. Too dark?
11:29 pm: The ceremony really should be only Matt Damon jokes.
Best Original Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Predicted Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Actual Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Score: 9/19
Alright, I'll admit this was huge. A huge win. FOR ME. Finally, the writer of The Adventures of Rocky and Bulwinkle (2000) has an Academy Award. Good on Kenny Lonergan, whose career has wildly oscillated between good and shit.
11:33 pm: Aww, good for you, Amy Adams, you got to come to the ceremony anyway. I'm sure that makes you feel great!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Moonlight
Actual Winner: Moonlight
Score: 10/20
And just like that I'm back up to a cool 50%. Only big awards left - at this rate my running prediction is probably 13/24, maybe 12/24 - I have no confidence over my Best Acting predictions. Also, great job Barry Jenkins for sneaking one for Moonlight, which for a moment looked like it didn't have much going for it. It's possible he still gets Best Director, but this is likely a consolation prize.
11:37 pm: Do you kind of feel like Kimmel's chasing that Ellen DeGeneres Pizza selfie moment that was completely sublime in 2014? Or just acknowledging that the best way to win over this starving crowd is feeding them all night?
11:42 pm:
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Predicted Winner: Chazelle
Actual Winner: Chazelle
Score: 11/21
This is all kinds of amazing. Good for Damien. It's almost a guarantee now that La La Land goes on to win BP instead of splitting like this category has done with the big one over the past few years. I know a few were predicting Barry Jenkins for that precise reason. Now, though, things appear to be falling into place.
11:47 pm: I'll admit that although this ceremony is somehow taking longer, I'm very appreciative of the avoidance of going through all the actors and all the Best Picture nominees and all the other crap this ceremony usually fills itself with.
Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Actual Winner: Casey Affleck
Score: 12/22
It'd be cool to see Vigio Morgenstein get an Oscar some day. BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY! So, that was scary for a bit but I'm not guaranteed at least 50%. I really thought Denzel had that for a second, but I guess Casey pulls it off. I'm glad I stuck with the original frontrunner pick. Never doubt! Until it fails, which it does all the time. I'm pretty confident about coasting from here on out.
11:54 pm: I wonder how Halle Berry feels about seeing her 2003 self up there winning an Oscar. Not like she looks any worse, but like, that was definitely a different career back then.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone
Actual Winner: Emma Stone
Score: 13/23
Huppert was visibly pissed. Great for Emma. Now Jonah Hill really needs that Oscar. Leo looks like a bronze god. I'm pumped that my tally has rallied back from a whole big steaming pile of shit.
12:03 pm: Amazing that those two are still kicking around, looking pretty good. Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway, for future, non-live readings of this post.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: La La Land
FINAL SCORE: 14/24
Amazing, if not completely predictable win for La La Land, which finishes with seven Oscars for the night - pretty well-rounded, too. More importantly, I finish with 14/24, which in my eight years of doing this, is the fourth time I've done so. The technical categories this year really tripped me up, as they did somewhat with Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) last year. That said, I went 5/15 for the first...
HOLY SHIT Warren Beatty pulled a Steve Harvey
soooo 12:12 pm: yeah. Yeah, this is nuts. I'm going to keep everything up here I was mindlessly writing when I thought La La Land had won - which it's totally insane that it didn't, but time to make some adjustments!
Predicted Winner: La La Land
Actual Winner: Moonlight
FINAL SCORE: 13/24
Jimmy doing a nice improv here. And I'm down to 13/14, which I nailed in 2015. Not great. I was about to say I went 5/15 for the first fifteen categories and then 9/9, but make that 8/9, which kind of sucks. What more can you ask for? I suppose not have 800-year old Warren Beatty reading the Best Picture Winner? It's kind of awesome that young people will now know who Warren Beatty is. This is stunning. Not nearly as stunning as Hacksaw Ridge winning for Editing, but pretty crazy.
I don't think I could have done much better. If I had made these predictions today I probably would have gone with "Sing", "Piper", and The Salesman, so maybe that pushes me to 16, but that's still kind of pathetic. This is all what makes the Oscars an exciting event - no one can really predict this shit. So, a hard-fought 13/24 this year to really accentuate my long-term average. Here's to next year!
No comments:
Post a Comment