2016 Oscars Live Blog! See it here or see it no where!

As I've done the past couple years I'll be live blogging the Oscars, periodically updating this very page with frantic, mildly amusing jokes and observations that are totally without context a few years down the road. Will this be like 2014 where I go 20/24? Or like 2015 where I pull a 13/24? Leo DiCaprio, my fate is in your hands...

Let's keep that awkward Golden Globes bit here for perpetuity.

8:28 pm: Two minutes to go. I really thought this shit began at 8 pm. Damn you ABC.

8:32: Ant-Man and Age of Ultron feel like they came out years ago. Anyone else feel that way? Maybe just because there's nothing very 2015-y about them or just because the anticipation and hype was so high for so long. Just a side thought during this montage here.

8:34: Going right into race stuff. Awesome, Chris Rock.

8:36: "Black people were too busy being raped and lynched in 1963 to care about who won Best Cinematographer."

8:40: I'm really distracted by Chris Rock's lapel bottom. "Black Rocky" lol

8:47: WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Actual Winner: Spotlight

No surprise here. Hard to gauge what this indicates because The Big Short will win Adapted.

Accuracy: 1/1

8:48: "Bittersweet Symphony"?

8:52: WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

Actual Winner:

Wow, are Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe the next great comedy team? This is random as hell. As far as winners go, it's somewhat amazing to utter the phrase, "Adam McKay, Oscar Winner," but that's pretty incredible. Dirty Mike lives! It'd be awesome to see how far The Big Short can go. Lol shout out to Pearl the landlord.

Accuracy: 2/2

8:59: Yes, Leslie Jones would make the best Revenant bear ever.

9:00: This is reminding me of how much I loved Top Five (2014).

9:01: Does Stacey Dash understand that joke at her expense?

9:04: Sam Smith sucks. I said it.

9:07: That Henry Cavill intro of The Martian just got super dramatic, to the point of parody. Meme? MEME.

9:13: ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander

Actual Winner: Alicia Vikander

Capping off the best 2015 anyone has had (except maybe Silentó), Alicia Vikander is well on her way to a stellar career, even if it generally feels like this is an early peak. Even former it girl Jennifer Lawrence took a few noms to win. Whatever, I'm a big fan, and this is certainly recognition for Ex Machina and obviously The Man from U.N.C.L.E. as much as The Danish Girl. Tracy Morgan is going to clean up Best Actor now.

Accuracy: 3/3

9:21: COSTUME DESIGN

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Carol

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Cate presenting this award and Rock announcing Carol as his third-favorite girl-on-girl film this year seemed on the nose. Those Revenant sketches looked pretty awesome. This is my first miss of the night and officially the most bonkers Costume Design winner ever. Seriously, this award always goes to stuffy period dishes like Carol. Whatever. This chick looks like the Bullet Farmer in a wig. Love it. Max gets its first of what could be a shitbutt of Oscars. Whoa! Great rhinestone Mad Max flame skull thing on the back of her outfit. What a good...costume design.

Accuracy: 3/4

9:24: PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Max

Actual Winner: MAX

Tina Fey is the best. Sick. Mad Max gets a super-deserved Production Design award. These thank you tickers are real fast, and I guess a nice way to get in a ton of people to thank. Totally not conducive for live-blogging where my eyes are mostly on my laptop.

Accuracy: 4/5

9:27: MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Max

Actual Winner: MAAAAAX

Jared Leto is real subtle. I did have to google what a merkin was. Thank you, Jared Leto, and I mean that, for adding this to my vocabulary. Three wins in a row for Mad Max seems really prophetic, but admittedly, this was expected. Mostly. I'm not totally sold on its sweeping-ness just yet.

Accuracy: 5/6

9:29: Unacknowledged bear shot. I'm down.

9:35: The cameraman seems to confuse who the real Joy Mangano is, focusing on the one who looks more like Jennifer Lawrence.

9:38: CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

Predicted Winner: Lubezki

Actual Winner: Lubezki

Did McAdams just wipe a tear away from her loss? Maybe having her announce a category RIGHT after her possible loss wasn't a great idea? So Lubezki has cemented himself as the Best Cinematographer ever, right? He moreso seems to just slay crazy technical challenges than actual put up the best images of the year, but that's part of the point, right? Well earned. Poor Deakins. Do you think they have a big rivalry?

Accuracy: 6/7

9:42: FILM EDITING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Actual Winner: Mad MAX

If they're going through in order of how films are made, shouldn't they have done Best Actor, Actress, and Visual Effects by now? The Big Short had looked like it was going to pull out the win lately, but I'm content with my original pick! Four Oscars already - wow! Is it possible that George Miller and company pull off the whole damn thing? What a crazy night. Who dare says that the Academy isn't bold?

Accuracy: 7/8

9:43: Nice to see Common there to make Chris Pine cry again.

9:47: What the fuck was that?

9:50: SOUND EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

Actual Winner: Mad Max

The sound thing is cool. But also seems really zany. I'm down. Could have seen this the way Max's night is going, but ah well. This isn't great for The Revenant's chance to spoil either The Big Short or Spotlight's run at the Big Award of the Night. Mixing is still up for grabs technically, but these usually go hand-in-hand because no one can tell the difference.

Accuracy: 7/9

9:52: SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

Actual Winner: Mad Max

The presenters always try to explain how these awards are different, but I'm guessing that only folly artists really know. I kind of always saw Mixing as the actual creation of sound effects and editing as piecing them together. I dunno. As for my failed prediction, well, whatever. See above.

Accuracy: 7/10

9:56: VISUAL EFFECTS

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Force Awakens

Actual Winner: Ex Machina

That was a kind of random Andy Serkis tribute, but he is the go-to (read: only) motion capture dude in Hollywood. And...WOW! I got this totally wrong but I'm not even upset. Ex Machina was the cheapest film on this list, as well as the best, by my end-of-year rankings. I always thought it actually deserved the nod here, but didn't think Star Wars would give it up. This is the first time the franchise has lost when it's been nominated. I said in my preview actually that nothing about Star Wars really seemed revolutionary, while Ex Machina totally did. This is awesome. My accuracy is taking a hit, though.

Accuracy: 7/11

10:00: I knew this already, but I do love how BB-8 actually works.

10:09: SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

"Bear Story"
"Prologue"
"Sanjay’s Super Team"
"We Can’t Live without Cosmos"
"World of Tomorrow"

Predicted Winner: "Sanjay's Super Team"

Actual Winner: "Bear Story"

Minions really are the greatest cultural invention of the past five years. You know, I was putting a nice streak together that is really in the shitter right now. Fuck you, "Bear Story." I didn't even like "Sanjay's Super Team." Fuck you, Oscars for giving statues to the people I like.

Accuracy: 7/12

10:12: ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Predicted Winner: Inside Out

Actual Winner: Inside Out

This Toy Story (1995) bit actually isn't that great. Can you imagine if this actually went to Boy and the World or When Marnie Was There or some other ridiculous flick that no one saw? With Pixar actually having a slam dunk this year (correction: ONE slam dunk this year), this is a no-brainer category.

Accurracy: 8/13

10:14: The preemptive bleep of Kevin Hart's "Congratulations" to all black actors not nominated is more an indicator of the Academy's racism than anything else. We've also got a guarantee that there's going to be a token black nominee in every category from now until forever. #OscarsSoBlack

10:22: Kate Winslet with glasses is literally Superman. I cannot recognize her.

10:33: ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Predicted Winner: Stallone

Actual Winner: Mark Rylance

Patricia Arquette...what the hell, why are you so monotone? I'm curious if Tom Hardy will become Leo in a few years - criminally underacknowledged. Then again, this is his first nomination, which is crazy. You know, Stallone's Rocky is always Rocky, but he does have this very natural, humble cadence that's so damn warm in Creed. But nevermind that shit, Mark Rylance, by far the most no-name dude here wins for a movie that no one saw or cared about. I don't really think this is earned. Stallone losing is baffling. For the second year in a row the Academy blows its chance to honor a career and won't get another chance too. And I'm crashing hard now. Then again, Expendables 4 (2017)...

Accuracy: 8/14

10:40: DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

"Body Team 12"
"Chau, beyond the Lines"
"Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah"
"A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
"Last Day of Freedom"

Predicted Winner: "Body Team 12"

Actual Winner: "A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"

This is a great bit by Louis C.K. about how the doc short winners will prize their Oscar more than anything else because they're going to be poor forever. As for my predictions, well hell, this is always a total crapshoot. That magical 2014 where I got 20/24 categories correct was mostly fueled by my random slaughtering of the Short Subject categories. Fuck my life.

Accuracy: 8/15

I didn't even pay attention to any of these nominees or what this movie was about. Seemed important.

10:44: DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Predicted Winner: Amy

Actual Winner: Amy

Dev Patel, you've changed, brother. You know, after actually looking at clips from all the other nominees it's totally clear that Amy was the least important doc that mostly just got nominated and won based off its celebrity notoriety. Thanks, at least, in a self-indulgent sense, that this is a lock that I actually won. You know, I remember this happening last year - this post devolved into desperate tumbling and grasping at any kind of redemption. Sick.

Accuracy: 9/16

10:54: Totally just tuned out while reading this.

10:55: I'm sure he'll be fine, but when I think in memoriam, I think Dave Grohl.

10:58: First and only Zoolander (2001) clip that will ever be played at an Academy Award ceremony for David Bowie's in memoriam.

11:04: "Loved you in Madagascar!" - Jacob Tremblay

11:06: SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

"Ave Maria"
"Day One"
"Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)"
"Shok"
"Stutterer"

Predicted Winner: "Ave Maria"

Actual Winner; "Stutterer"

Fuck you, "Stutterer." Dive bombing hard right now after being 7/8 at one point. I blame Mark Rylance.

Accuracy: 9/17

11:09: FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul

Actual Winner: Son of Saul

I'm weirdly a big Lee Byung-hun fan, actually. Anyway, thank goodness this went my way - maybe we can buck a trend and run through all the major acting and directing awards without much of a hitch. There aren't supposed to be much dumbness in the music categories, but who knows. I'm predicting a 15/24 finish right now.

Accuracy: 10/18

11:10: Lou Gosset Jr stands for Joe Biden.

11:11: I'm all for this, Joe, but where is this anti-sexual abuse PSA coming from? Odd plug then right into a charming Lady GaGa song. Lots of high profile gigs for the GaGa lately. Time to finish that Revenant article.

11:15: Is "Till It Happens to You" a sexual abuse thing? I'm so uninformed.

11:23: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight

Actual Winner: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

"Oscar-nominated composer, Pharrell" What. I can't even register or recognize Mark Rylance's face. Ennio Morricone turns 106 years old this year. This is a great award for him. I'm surprised Quentin isn't there to accept on his behalf. I love how he doesn't give a shit about speaking in English. Roger Deakins looks like Dick Van Dyke.

Accuracy: 11/19

11:27: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” SPECTRE

Predicted Winner: "Til It Happens To You"

Actual Winner: "Writing's On the Wall"

Ugh, this is just making me think of "Glory" last year, which was the greatest Oscar Song Performance ever. It's a total thing among me and my friends to just play "Glory" and cry from time to time. Isn't it kind of horseshit that the Academy just decided to only play the three songs made by popular contemporary artists? Anyway, damnation Sam Smith. A Bond song wins again, and we avoid Lady GaGa, Oscar Winner. She better get her agent on that case.

Accuracy: 11/20

11:28: ALI G!!! Lol is he doing the Mexico City 1968 one glove thing. Thanks for being there, Olivia Wilde.

11:39: DIRECTING

Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abramson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Predicted Winner: Iñárritu

Actual Winner: Alejandro

Obviously, in the process of making movies, Directing comes before acting. Obviously. Anyway, I now at worst tie my lowest ever predictions, way back in 2010. Alejandro "Speedy" Gonzalez Iñárritu wins for a second time in as many years for two extremely different films, which is downright amazing. The Revenant could pull off a very late run here and now Best Picture isn't as clear cut for sure. I love winners who talk through the music without giving a shit at all.

Accuracy: 12/21

11:42: At this point I'd actually be very surprised if The Big Short wins. It seems to be Mad Max or The Revenant's night, although it did pick up the Adapted Screenplay Award. I'm just not feeling it. We'll see I guess.

11:48: ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson

Actual Winner: Brie Larson

I don't know why I hate Eddie Redmayne so much. Maybe because he's a totally innocuous actor who's completely undistinctive that beat out the incredible job Mike Keaton did last year. Or maybe it's just residual Les Miserables (2012) annoyance. And Brie Larson will always be that girl from 21 Jump Street (2012) to me. Channing and Jonah need to catch up so that film can boast three Oscar winners on the cover. I at least now can't do worse than last year.

Accuracy: 13/22

Two more categories to go, let's list them now:

11:56: ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Predicted Winner: Leo

Actual Winner: LEO

It's weird that no nominee this year acted in a film set in the current year. There literally isn't anything I can say that hasn't already been said a dozen times about this performance - how it's more gross than great and more a way to honor everything he's done than just this grueling film. But, whatever, whether or not he's truly been "pursuing" this for years, it's nice that he finally has a little gold man for his shelf. And lols at Leo of course plugging his climate change thing. He's super into that. Hopefully this speech will stop our reliance on carbon fuels.

Accuracy: 14/23

12:02 AM: BEST PICTURE

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

Actual Winner: Spotlight

Well it's been another long, pointless season that ends with me pretty disappointed in myself. I can't say Spotlight's win is totally unexpected. It was the early favorite and lately seemed to be in the running with The Big Short, with The Revenant nipping at its heels and even Mad Max looking for a possible upset tonight. But in the end the early favorite pulls it off. I thought about picking it, but was pretty sure that the winner would be the opposite of whichever film I picked. That's very much the case here.

12:04: Final Tally: 14/24

14/24 is disappointing, although better than last year. I equal my 2011 and 2013 tally, which is apparently my lucky number. Breaking down my misses are all three short subjects, both sound categories, the Best Picture toss-up, upsets in Supporting Actor and Original Song and random misses in Costume and Visual Effects. I can and will do better!

First Impressions: DEADPOOL

Oh sweet, sweet Deadpool (2016). So much of this film was the culmination of so many years of yearning, failed promises, and hope that's all paid off in a big way. It's almost odd that the current Deadpool may not have worked as well if it hadn't been preceded by so many completely horrible superhero movies starring Ryan Reynolds.

I was disappointed by the lack of chimichangas.

For the uninitiated, Deadpool is Marvel's most irreverent fourth-wall breaking meta superhero / antihero with loose ties to the X-Men, although he's technically not a mutant himself, but rather a product of the Weapon X system that's both slapstick and hyper-violent. It's a tricky character to pull off, with constant talking, pop culture witticisms, and a comedic / action tone that's incredibly specific. The greatest marvel of the film Deadpool is that it's largely successful in all these aspects. SPOILERS FOREVER!

Even though it's admittedly early in 2016, Deadpool is bar none the funniest film of the year, and sets the bar high enough that it'll be hard for anyone to top it. Some of this is topical enough that it may date the film in a few years, but I think a lot of it will actually hold up (I'm generally curious if Twitter jokes will still be funny in 2027). The most specific may be riffing on Liam Neeson's Taken series, but I imagine that that's got enough cultural weight to still be fondly remembered as being awful.

That awfulness of other films is where Deadpool gains most of its ground. It's worthwhile to note that Ryan Reynolds' first outing as the character is widely regarded as the worst part of the worst non-Fantastic Four (2015) movie ever, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009), which Reynolds is more than willing to make fun of here. He also readily makes fun of the nearly equally terrible Green Lantern (2011) and even his own status as People's sexiest man alive. All this meta-textuality and references to other superhero films feels incredibly Deadpool and actually serves to place the film within a shared universe better than even the Avengers films could hope for.

See, Deadpool exists in the X-Men universe, but totally on the periphery. It's not like they need to reference certain events, but the iconography is so strong in the oldest contiguous superhero series that they're free to make a few references to Xavier ("Stewart or McAvoy?!"), the Mansion, and a few heroes flitting in and out (with commentary on the studio's budget of course). This matter-of-fact approach actually creates a more natural inclusion of the film on the outskirts of that world while Deadpool himself speaks freely to the camera and possesses intimate knowledge of our world in addition to his fictional one.

Now, this may be a personal issue, but what took me out absolute enjoyment of the film was actually its extreme post-modernism. It skewers superhero tropes pretty thoroughly and consistently, starting from the brilliant opening credits and going up through Gina Carano's superhero landing, which has never looked so purposely hackneyed. The issue with all this is the same as in 22 Jump Street (2014), where the self-awareness is refreshing, but the commentary on tropes failed when the film itself doesn't elevate beyond these tropes. I've actually leaned towards new sincerity over post-modernism lately, and would be more interested in a film that genuinely breaks down superhero film beats rather than one that just replaces them with silly things.

Of course, the first hour or so of Deadpool largely breaks with convention through its extended freeway scene interspliced with flashbacks to Wade Wilson's origin story. The construction here is brilliant and sets up the character through these fun little character bits, like Deadpool playing with the automatic window in the taxi cab or shooting a guy through his ass.

The origin story itself also works well because it throws the viewer as close to the end of the story as possible, ignoring youthful trips down bat-infested wells or bothering at all with family or high school life. It relies on character to advance its plot, although it becomes blatant with its "make you a superhero" by unlocking latent mutant genes conceit. After that, though, it tends to follow the beats of each character from the self-labelled "British Villain" to the "Moody Teen" and "Comic Relief." The final culminating villain battle feels a lot like any other superhero film, even though it's full of cheeky one-liners.

Having said that, the R-Rated Superhero as it turns out, is a fantastic idea. The film really lets loose, and it's genuinely surprising when the first titty shows up. There's unrelenting violence and language which offers simultaneous hilarity, tonal distinctiveness, and realism. Yes, realism - this is what would happen when superpowered gun and sword swinging nutjobs attack each other. People start bleeding.

Deadpool loves you

As for the characters, Ryan Reynolds  himself is all-in, and the film absolutely succeeds because he's the man born to play Deadpool. Beyond that, though, Monica Baccarin, although mostly relegated to simple love interest, does a nice job of being an atypical object of desire, with mostly her own agency, even if it's driven by male fantasy.

Ajax, played by Ed Skrein (who looks a lot like a beefed up Nicholas Hoult), is a notable mirror image to Deadpool, with inverse powers and similar origins but contrary worldviews and personality. He does a nice job being really sinister, although he doesn't actually anything all that awful except being a sadistic wacko. There's no global domination plot here, which is actually reassuring. It's all personal vendettas built upon each other, which again leaves a refreshing atmosphere and breaks from convention.

The more I write it out the more my original post-modern criticism seems to weaken. There is a lot to this film that bucks the trend, although the emotional beats are still there, even if they're coated with swear-laden tirades and silly faces instead of brooding angst and muted colors.

The other notable character here is Colossus, who doesn't have any real connection to Deadpool, besides being the other most prominent X-Man who has never been done justice on screen. It's amazing that the costumes work so well, too. Both Piotr and Negasonic Teenage Warhead look really good on screen. It's amazing that we finally reached the point where we can have leather outfits that don't look terrible. It's been a long time.

For any fan who's ever felt cast aside by the big studios, particularly Fox, this really is the film for you. The fact that's made a truly absurd amount of money is a great sign that studios are growing more and more comfortable staying true to comic material rather than making up their own terrible shit. Again, fan service is a tricky line to cross, though. Just look at Snakes on a Plane (2006). Ultimately, there was a need for a post-modern reaction to both overly serious superhero movies as well as carbon copy fluorescent movies. X-Men, as a product of being around for sixteen years has always been a step ahead of the game, which is actually an underrated element of the franchise. I'm all in for Deadpool & Cable (2018) and Stephen Lang looks better than anyone. Except Keira Knightly.

Perfect 100% Accurate Oscar Predictions: 2016 Edition

Ah it's that time once again to honor the best white actors this country has to offer. I feel like I say this every year - the Oscars aren't relevant or important in any kind of meaningful discussion of a film's merit and serve moreover as self-congratulatory pomp rather than offering cultural insight. Still...stars! So, here's a lengthy prediction post dissecting every category in anticipation of the ceremony on February 28th.

First, let's take a look at how I've done in the past:

2010: 12/24
2011: 14/24
2012: 16/24
2013: 14/24
2014: 20/24
2015: 13/24

Needless to say, my 2014 is quickly becoming legendary. I was actually on a ridiculous streak last year, going 12/17, then only winning one more from the seven remaining categories. Damnation. Well, let's get dangerous:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Predicted Winner: Leo

So, let's get this out of the way. It's Leo. Finally, finally. Regardless of whether or not his role was actually good acting or not (it's easy to just do gross things, yet Johnny Knoxville doesn't have four Oscars), all signs seem to point to his ship coming in. Cranston is a giant, but hasn't quite found the film equivalent of Heisenberg. I'm still bitter at Redmayne for his hackneyed win last year, and jumping on the transgender bandwagon seems like a ploy again. This should have been Fassbender's to lose, but somehow everyone sort of hated Steve Jobs. Maybe like how everyone hated Steve Jobs.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson

This is a total war between three young great actresses against one old one no non-cinephile knows and Cate Blanchett, who almost feels Streep-esque in her yearly nominations, even if she's only 2/6 across the past seventeen years. Brie seems to be the winner here, tho, after years of both mainstream and indie hits, she owns Room with just enough parts tearjerking, emoting in range, and handshaking to pull it off.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Predicted Winner: Stallone

No, Stallone doesn't do a particularly great job in Creed. No, he's not even the best actor in Creed. But he seems to be gaining momentum like crazy. He was nominated for the same character in Rocky (1976) but lost to Peter Finch in Network (1976), which is totally justified. He notably also lost the screenwriting Oscar to the same film (also totally justified), but won Best Picture, beating such terrible films as the aforementioned Network, Taxi Driver, and All the President's Men. Truly a down year. Despite getting his start in porn and unfairly missing out on any nominations for his equally popular character from The Expendibles (2010), Barney Ross, he has enough goodwill that people generally think he deserves this. This works as a sort of lifetime achievement Oscar that actors like Al Pacino and Christopher Plummer get all the time for roles that weren't totally their best. Just like Michael Keaton last year.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander

I'm a big Vikander fan already, although The Danish Girl clearly wasn't as good as her work in Ex Machina (2015) or even The Man from U.N.C.L.E. (2015) for fuck's sake. She's totally the golden girl of the moment and this win will be pretty sweet. Rooney could upset which would also be totally justified. Winslet is also in the exact same position as Fassbender - buzz was heavy early on but then no one liked Steve Jobs. Oh well.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Predicted Winner: Inside Out

There's not really a question here, although Anomalisa could certainly be considered a strong runner-up based on its late critical appreciation. It's so niche, though, and considering that Pixar has seven of these statues and considering that either they or Disney have won seven of the past eight years this is a relatively safe bet.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

Predicted Winner: Lubezki

It's a terrible shame that 13-time nominee Roger Deakins will likely go home empty-handed again, but there's no question that Lubezki procured the more impressive work. Again. This would make Lubezki three for three in as many years, but you can't even be mad. It's damn astonishing what he's able to churn out. Deakins will get his eventually. Right? To be honest, the thing about Deakins is that almost all his films look the same - the same desaturated palette to make things deep and brooding. It's boring. Pretty, but boring. Lubezki takes on these wacky challenges and makes his shots look really good.

COSTUME DESIGN

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Carol

Sandy Powell, who has been nominated ten times and won thrice is up for both Carol and Cinderella here. It's a safe bet to figure she wins, although the trick would be for what film. Cinderella is probably the less critically acclaimed but more widely seen. Carol did get a handful of attention with six nominations. That's pretty significant. I'll side with that and totally give myself a half point if Sandy wins for Cinderella.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Predicted Winner: Amy

Is it crass to say that no body really cared about Amy Winehouse until she died? Still, that doesn't stop the fact that people are really into her. Definitely into her enough to give the creators of the doc a gold statue. No one's ever heard of any of the other crap here.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

"Body Team 12"
"Chau, beyond the Lines"
"Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah"
"A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
"Last Day of Freedom"

Predicted Winner: "Body Team 12"

THAT'S RIGHT!

FILM EDITING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

This will probably come down to how well Fury Road actually ends up doing on February 28th. It is one of the best edited movies...ever but The Big Short offers some really well-cut sequences along with the prestige of Oscar bait with the cheeky humour of something like Argo (2012) to make it all go down smooth. It's something the Academy can vote for pretty safely. Still, Max is an absolute technical masterpiece. I think it can do it. DO IT ALL. Probably not if The Big Short ends up winning everything.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Predicted Winner: Son of Saul

There's always like one foreign movie that people have actually heard of and has appeared on some end of year best of lists, and this year's it's totally Son of Saul despite the weird and fun titles of some of these like Theeb. What the fuck is Theeb? No one knows. Son of Saul wins.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Max

No, the people who worked so hard to make Leo's beard authentically grody won't walk away here. And what the hell is this 1000-Pound Man thing? The make-up and hair of Mad Max is pretty iconic and incredible. This is well deserved.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight

After aping his music for years, Tarantino actually got Ennio Morricone, who is somehow still alive to actually score one of his movies, and unsurprisingly, it's amazing. There's no reason to believe in an upset here, even Star Wars is mostly just a John Williams retread nominated for nostalgia more than anything.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” SPECTRE

Predicted Winner: "Til It Happens To You"

No one cares about this this year. None of these songs are good or iconic or drove their films in a culturally significant way. It's a shame that no song like that came out this year. I haven't even heard this song, but it's gaining good ground. I might think that Sam Smith or The Weeknd steals one here, since people have actually heard of them, but no one wants to give Fifty Shades of Grey an Oscar, and we all agree that "Writing's On the Wall" blows when it's not OK Go.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Max

I can see The Revenant sneaking up here and it will mostly depend on how the night is going for either movie. Max is favored to sweep the technical categories, though, and since it's a big popular (-ish) blockbuster movie, it's a good excuse for people to let their love for zany explosions fly. It is also a miracle of production that it was even made, considering the terrible shooting conditions and long delays. We're talking about The Revenant right?

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

"Bear Story"
"Prologue"
"Sanjay’s Super Team"
"We Can’t Live without Cosmos"
"World of Tomorrow"

Predicted Winner: "Sanjay's Super Team"

I thought "Sanjay's Super Team" was pretty lame. Donnie Herzfeldt's "World of Tomorrow" would be a bodacious win but there's no real reason to believe in the upset. Considering how underground Herzfeldt is that would be a poetic win against Disney for sure, but people tend to be suckers for big minority eyes.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

"Ave Maria"
"Day One"
"Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)"
"Shok"
"Stutterer"

Predicted Winner: "Ave Maria"

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST.

SOUND EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

Is Max the safe pick when nothing is obvious? Are we really at this stage in the game? I feel like a lot of pundits are counting out The Revenant after it cleaned up at the Golden Globes and is also the hottest film out at the moment. Fuck this, The Revenant is the safe pick. Right? Ugh help me Zeus.

SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

This will likely come down to the same pair of films. I actually wouldn't totally be shocked if The Martian pulls one of these out - random movies like that always sneak one by in these kinds of categories. Hopefully I'll pick Revenant for both here and it'll win at least one.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Force Awakens

All three original Star Wars films nabbed this, although the same cannot be said for the prequels. It has enough goodwill to snatch one from Mad Max here, although to be honest, nothing about The Force Awakens was all that spectacular - at least not greater than your typical blockbuster. Leo on the horse over the cliff, Alicia Vikander's robo-bod and the Fury Road sandstorm are all more impressive technical achievements.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

This ought to be exactly like 2010 when The Social Network went up against The King's Speech and dueled in every category, but won both their respective writing categories. The Big Short ends up the no brainer pick here.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Winner: Spotlight

Ditto.

DIRECTING

Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abramson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Predicted Winner: Iñárritu

The only sure bet is that it'll be some combination of Miller, McKay, or Alejandro. Iñárritu seems more likely after racking up the DGA this past weekend in addition to his somewhat surprising Golden Globe nab. McKay does seem like more of a stretch, if only because of his untraditional background. George Miller actually has a solid amount of precursor awards to back up his campaign, but it seems absolutely insane to me that he'd actually pull this off. Iñárritu obviously had his big year last year and is likely to have a rare repeat here.

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

This is the big one. There's only four films that actually count here - The Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max, and The Revenant. The Revenant seems to have the most momentum right now. Looking at ten outlets right now, including Variety, Rolling Stone, Gold Derby, and Indie Wire, among others, four go for The Big Short, four for Spotlight, and two for The Revenant. So that's no real help. Considering The Big Short wrapped up the PGAs, I'm most inclined to side with that, but there's no telling where this slides right now.

So what do you think? Watch everything go down in twenty days!