As I've done the past couple years I'll be live blogging the Oscars, periodically updating this very page with frantic, mildly amusing jokes and observations that are totally without context a few years down the road. Will this be like 2014 where I go 20/24? Or like 2015 where I pull a 13/24? Leo DiCaprio, my fate is in your hands...
Let's keep that awkward Golden Globes bit here for perpetuity.
8:28 pm: Two minutes to go. I really thought this shit began at 8 pm. Damn you ABC.
8:32: Ant-Man and Age of Ultron feel like they came out years ago. Anyone else feel that way? Maybe just because there's nothing very 2015-y about them or just because the anticipation and hype was so high for so long. Just a side thought during this montage here.
8:34: Going right into race stuff. Awesome, Chris Rock.
8:36: "Black people were too busy being raped and lynched in 1963 to care about who won Best Cinematographer."
8:40: I'm really distracted by Chris Rock's lapel bottom. "Black Rocky" lol
8:47: WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Actual Winner: Spotlight
No surprise here. Hard to gauge what this indicates because The Big Short will win Adapted.
Accuracy: 1/1
8:48: "Bittersweet Symphony"?
8:52: WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Actual Winner:
Wow, are Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe the next great comedy team? This is random as hell. As far as winners go, it's somewhat amazing to utter the phrase, "Adam McKay, Oscar Winner," but that's pretty incredible. Dirty Mike lives! It'd be awesome to see how far The Big Short can go. Lol shout out to Pearl the landlord.
Accuracy: 2/2
8:59: Yes, Leslie Jones would make the best Revenant bear ever.
9:00: This is reminding me of how much I loved Top Five (2014).
9:01: Does Stacey Dash understand that joke at her expense?
9:04: Sam Smith sucks. I said it.
9:07: That Henry Cavill intro of The Martian just got super dramatic, to the point of parody. Meme? MEME.
9:13: ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander
Actual Winner: Alicia Vikander
Capping off the best 2015 anyone has had (except maybe Silentó), Alicia Vikander is well on her way to a stellar career, even if it generally feels like this is an early peak. Even former it girl Jennifer Lawrence took a few noms to win. Whatever, I'm a big fan, and this is certainly recognition for Ex Machina and obviously The Man from U.N.C.L.E. as much as The Danish Girl. Tracy Morgan is going to clean up Best Actor now.
Accuracy: 3/3
9:21: COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Carol
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Cate presenting this award and Rock announcing Carol as his third-favorite girl-on-girl film this year seemed on the nose. Those Revenant sketches looked pretty awesome. This is my first miss of the night and officially the most bonkers Costume Design winner ever. Seriously, this award always goes to stuffy period dishes like Carol. Whatever. This chick looks like the Bullet Farmer in a wig. Love it. Max gets its first of what could be a shitbutt of Oscars. Whoa! Great rhinestone Mad Max flame skull thing on the back of her outfit. What a good...costume design.
Accuracy: 3/4
9:24: PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Max
Actual Winner: MAX
Tina Fey is the best. Sick. Mad Max gets a super-deserved Production Design award. These thank you tickers are real fast, and I guess a nice way to get in a ton of people to thank. Totally not conducive for live-blogging where my eyes are mostly on my laptop.
Accuracy: 4/5
9:27: MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Max
Actual Winner: MAAAAAX
Jared Leto is real subtle. I did have to google what a merkin was. Thank you, Jared Leto, and I mean that, for adding this to my vocabulary. Three wins in a row for Mad Max seems really prophetic, but admittedly, this was expected. Mostly. I'm not totally sold on its sweeping-ness just yet.
Accuracy: 5/6
9:29: Unacknowledged bear shot. I'm down.
9:35: The cameraman seems to confuse who the real Joy Mangano is, focusing on the one who looks more like Jennifer Lawrence.
9:38: CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario
Predicted Winner: Lubezki
Actual Winner: Lubezki
Did McAdams just wipe a tear away from her loss? Maybe having her announce a category RIGHT after her possible loss wasn't a great idea? So Lubezki has cemented himself as the Best Cinematographer ever, right? He moreso seems to just slay crazy technical challenges than actual put up the best images of the year, but that's part of the point, right? Well earned. Poor Deakins. Do you think they have a big rivalry?
Accuracy: 6/7
9:42: FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad MAX
If they're going through in order of how films are made, shouldn't they have done Best Actor, Actress, and Visual Effects by now? The Big Short had looked like it was going to pull out the win lately, but I'm content with my original pick! Four Oscars already - wow! Is it possible that George Miller and company pull off the whole damn thing? What a crazy night. Who dare says that the Academy isn't bold?
Accuracy: 7/8
9:43: Nice to see Common there to make Chris Pine cry again.
9:47: What the fuck was that?
9:50: SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Revenant
Actual Winner: Mad Max
The sound thing is cool. But also seems really zany. I'm down. Could have seen this the way Max's night is going, but ah well. This isn't great for The Revenant's chance to spoil either The Big Short or Spotlight's run at the Big Award of the Night. Mixing is still up for grabs technically, but these usually go hand-in-hand because no one can tell the difference.
Accuracy: 7/9
9:52: SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Revenant
Actual Winner: Mad Max
The presenters always try to explain how these awards are different, but I'm guessing that only folly artists really know. I kind of always saw Mixing as the actual creation of sound effects and editing as piecing them together. I dunno. As for my failed prediction, well, whatever. See above.
Accuracy: 7/10
9:56: VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Force Awakens
Actual Winner: Ex Machina
That was a kind of random Andy Serkis tribute, but he is the go-to (read: only) motion capture dude in Hollywood. And...WOW! I got this totally wrong but I'm not even upset. Ex Machina was the cheapest film on this list, as well as the best, by my end-of-year rankings. I always thought it actually deserved the nod here, but didn't think Star Wars would give it up. This is the first time the franchise has lost when it's been nominated. I said in my preview actually that nothing about Star Wars really seemed revolutionary, while Ex Machina totally did. This is awesome. My accuracy is taking a hit, though.
Accuracy: 7/11
10:00: I knew this already, but I do love how BB-8 actually works.
10:09: SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
"Bear Story"
"Prologue"
"Sanjay’s Super Team"
"We Can’t Live without Cosmos"
"World of Tomorrow"
Predicted Winner: "Sanjay's Super Team"
Actual Winner: "Bear Story"
Minions really are the greatest cultural invention of the past five years. You know, I was putting a nice streak together that is really in the shitter right now. Fuck you, "Bear Story." I didn't even like "Sanjay's Super Team." Fuck you, Oscars for giving statues to the people I like.
Accuracy: 7/12
10:12: ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Actual Winner: Inside Out
This Toy Story (1995) bit actually isn't that great. Can you imagine if this actually went to Boy and the World or When Marnie Was There or some other ridiculous flick that no one saw? With Pixar actually having a slam dunk this year (correction: ONE slam dunk this year), this is a no-brainer category.
Accurracy: 8/13
10:14: The preemptive bleep of Kevin Hart's "Congratulations" to all black actors not nominated is more an indicator of the Academy's racism than anything else. We've also got a guarantee that there's going to be a token black nominee in every category from now until forever. #OscarsSoBlack
10:22: Kate Winslet with glasses is literally Superman. I cannot recognize her.
10:33: ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Predicted Winner: Stallone
Actual Winner: Mark Rylance
Patricia Arquette...what the hell, why are you so monotone? I'm curious if Tom Hardy will become Leo in a few years - criminally underacknowledged. Then again, this is his first nomination, which is crazy. You know, Stallone's Rocky is always Rocky, but he does have this very natural, humble cadence that's so damn warm in Creed. But nevermind that shit, Mark Rylance, by far the most no-name dude here wins for a movie that no one saw or cared about. I don't really think this is earned. Stallone losing is baffling. For the second year in a row the Academy blows its chance to honor a career and won't get another chance too. And I'm crashing hard now. Then again, Expendables 4 (2017)...
Accuracy: 8/14
10:40: DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
"Body Team 12"
"Chau, beyond the Lines"
"Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah"
"A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
"Last Day of Freedom"
Predicted Winner: "Body Team 12"
Actual Winner: "A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
This is a great bit by Louis C.K. about how the doc short winners will prize their Oscar more than anything else because they're going to be poor forever. As for my predictions, well hell, this is always a total crapshoot. That magical 2014 where I got 20/24 categories correct was mostly fueled by my random slaughtering of the Short Subject categories. Fuck my life.
Accuracy: 8/15
I didn't even pay attention to any of these nominees or what this movie was about. Seemed important.
10:44: DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted Winner: Amy
Actual Winner: Amy
Dev Patel, you've changed, brother. You know, after actually looking at clips from all the other nominees it's totally clear that Amy was the least important doc that mostly just got nominated and won based off its celebrity notoriety. Thanks, at least, in a self-indulgent sense, that this is a lock that I actually won. You know, I remember this happening last year - this post devolved into desperate tumbling and grasping at any kind of redemption. Sick.
Accuracy: 9/16
10:54: Totally just tuned out while reading this.
10:55: I'm sure he'll be fine, but when I think in memoriam, I think Dave Grohl.
10:58: First and only Zoolander (2001) clip that will ever be played at an Academy Award ceremony for David Bowie's in memoriam.
11:04: "Loved you in Madagascar!" - Jacob Tremblay
11:06: SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
"Ave Maria"
"Day One"
"Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)"
"Shok"
"Stutterer"
Predicted Winner: "Ave Maria"
Actual Winner; "Stutterer"
Fuck you, "Stutterer." Dive bombing hard right now after being 7/8 at one point. I blame Mark Rylance.
Accuracy: 9/17
11:09: FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Actual Winner: Son of Saul
I'm weirdly a big Lee Byung-hun fan, actually. Anyway, thank goodness this went my way - maybe we can buck a trend and run through all the major acting and directing awards without much of a hitch. There aren't supposed to be much dumbness in the music categories, but who knows. I'm predicting a 15/24 finish right now.
Accuracy: 10/18
11:10: Lou Gosset Jr stands for Joe Biden.
11:11: I'm all for this, Joe, but where is this anti-sexual abuse PSA coming from? Odd plug then right into a charming Lady GaGa song. Lots of high profile gigs for the GaGa lately. Time to finish that Revenant article.
11:15: Is "Till It Happens to You" a sexual abuse thing? I'm so uninformed.
11:23: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Actual Winner: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
"Oscar-nominated composer, Pharrell" What. I can't even register or recognize Mark Rylance's face. Ennio Morricone turns 106 years old this year. This is a great award for him. I'm surprised Quentin isn't there to accept on his behalf. I love how he doesn't give a shit about speaking in English. Roger Deakins looks like Dick Van Dyke.
Accuracy: 11/19
11:27: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” SPECTRE
Predicted Winner: "Til It Happens To You"
Actual Winner: "Writing's On the Wall"
Ugh, this is just making me think of "Glory" last year, which was the greatest Oscar Song Performance ever. It's a total thing among me and my friends to just play "Glory" and cry from time to time. Isn't it kind of horseshit that the Academy just decided to only play the three songs made by popular contemporary artists? Anyway, damnation Sam Smith. A Bond song wins again, and we avoid Lady GaGa, Oscar Winner. She better get her agent on that case.
Accuracy: 11/20
11:28: ALI G!!! Lol is he doing the Mexico City 1968 one glove thing. Thanks for being there, Olivia Wilde.
11:39: DIRECTING
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abramson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Let's keep that awkward Golden Globes bit here for perpetuity.
8:28 pm: Two minutes to go. I really thought this shit began at 8 pm. Damn you ABC.
8:32: Ant-Man and Age of Ultron feel like they came out years ago. Anyone else feel that way? Maybe just because there's nothing very 2015-y about them or just because the anticipation and hype was so high for so long. Just a side thought during this montage here.
8:34: Going right into race stuff. Awesome, Chris Rock.
8:36: "Black people were too busy being raped and lynched in 1963 to care about who won Best Cinematographer."
8:40: I'm really distracted by Chris Rock's lapel bottom. "Black Rocky" lol
8:47: WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Winner: Spotlight
Actual Winner: Spotlight
No surprise here. Hard to gauge what this indicates because The Big Short will win Adapted.
Accuracy: 1/1
8:48: "Bittersweet Symphony"?
8:52: WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Actual Winner:
Wow, are Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe the next great comedy team? This is random as hell. As far as winners go, it's somewhat amazing to utter the phrase, "Adam McKay, Oscar Winner," but that's pretty incredible. Dirty Mike lives! It'd be awesome to see how far The Big Short can go. Lol shout out to Pearl the landlord.
Accuracy: 2/2
8:59: Yes, Leslie Jones would make the best Revenant bear ever.
9:00: This is reminding me of how much I loved Top Five (2014).
9:01: Does Stacey Dash understand that joke at her expense?
9:04: Sam Smith sucks. I said it.
9:07: That Henry Cavill intro of The Martian just got super dramatic, to the point of parody. Meme? MEME.
9:13: ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander
Actual Winner: Alicia Vikander
Capping off the best 2015 anyone has had (except maybe Silentó), Alicia Vikander is well on her way to a stellar career, even if it generally feels like this is an early peak. Even former it girl Jennifer Lawrence took a few noms to win. Whatever, I'm a big fan, and this is certainly recognition for Ex Machina and obviously The Man from U.N.C.L.E. as much as The Danish Girl. Tracy Morgan is going to clean up Best Actor now.
Accuracy: 3/3
9:21: COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Carol
Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Cate presenting this award and Rock announcing Carol as his third-favorite girl-on-girl film this year seemed on the nose. Those Revenant sketches looked pretty awesome. This is my first miss of the night and officially the most bonkers Costume Design winner ever. Seriously, this award always goes to stuffy period dishes like Carol. Whatever. This chick looks like the Bullet Farmer in a wig. Love it. Max gets its first of what could be a shitbutt of Oscars. Whoa! Great rhinestone Mad Max flame skull thing on the back of her outfit. What a good...costume design.
Accuracy: 3/4
9:24: PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Max
Actual Winner: MAX
Tina Fey is the best. Sick. Mad Max gets a super-deserved Production Design award. These thank you tickers are real fast, and I guess a nice way to get in a ton of people to thank. Totally not conducive for live-blogging where my eyes are mostly on my laptop.
Accuracy: 4/5
9:27: MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted Winner: Max
Actual Winner: MAAAAAX
Jared Leto is real subtle. I did have to google what a merkin was. Thank you, Jared Leto, and I mean that, for adding this to my vocabulary. Three wins in a row for Mad Max seems really prophetic, but admittedly, this was expected. Mostly. I'm not totally sold on its sweeping-ness just yet.
Accuracy: 5/6
9:29: Unacknowledged bear shot. I'm down.
9:35: The cameraman seems to confuse who the real Joy Mangano is, focusing on the one who looks more like Jennifer Lawrence.
9:38: CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario
Predicted Winner: Lubezki
Actual Winner: Lubezki
Did McAdams just wipe a tear away from her loss? Maybe having her announce a category RIGHT after her possible loss wasn't a great idea? So Lubezki has cemented himself as the Best Cinematographer ever, right? He moreso seems to just slay crazy technical challenges than actual put up the best images of the year, but that's part of the point, right? Well earned. Poor Deakins. Do you think they have a big rivalry?
Accuracy: 6/7
9:42: FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
Actual Winner: Mad MAX
If they're going through in order of how films are made, shouldn't they have done Best Actor, Actress, and Visual Effects by now? The Big Short had looked like it was going to pull out the win lately, but I'm content with my original pick! Four Oscars already - wow! Is it possible that George Miller and company pull off the whole damn thing? What a crazy night. Who dare says that the Academy isn't bold?
Accuracy: 7/8
9:43: Nice to see Common there to make Chris Pine cry again.
9:47: What the fuck was that?
9:50: SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Revenant
Actual Winner: Mad Max
The sound thing is cool. But also seems really zany. I'm down. Could have seen this the way Max's night is going, but ah well. This isn't great for The Revenant's chance to spoil either The Big Short or Spotlight's run at the Big Award of the Night. Mixing is still up for grabs technically, but these usually go hand-in-hand because no one can tell the difference.
Accuracy: 7/9
9:52: SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Revenant
Actual Winner: Mad Max
The presenters always try to explain how these awards are different, but I'm guessing that only folly artists really know. I kind of always saw Mixing as the actual creation of sound effects and editing as piecing them together. I dunno. As for my failed prediction, well, whatever. See above.
Accuracy: 7/10
9:56: VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Force Awakens
Actual Winner: Ex Machina
That was a kind of random Andy Serkis tribute, but he is the go-to (read: only) motion capture dude in Hollywood. And...WOW! I got this totally wrong but I'm not even upset. Ex Machina was the cheapest film on this list, as well as the best, by my end-of-year rankings. I always thought it actually deserved the nod here, but didn't think Star Wars would give it up. This is the first time the franchise has lost when it's been nominated. I said in my preview actually that nothing about Star Wars really seemed revolutionary, while Ex Machina totally did. This is awesome. My accuracy is taking a hit, though.
Accuracy: 7/11
10:00: I knew this already, but I do love how BB-8 actually works.
10:09: SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
"Bear Story"
"Prologue"
"Sanjay’s Super Team"
"We Can’t Live without Cosmos"
"World of Tomorrow"
Predicted Winner: "Sanjay's Super Team"
Actual Winner: "Bear Story"
Minions really are the greatest cultural invention of the past five years. You know, I was putting a nice streak together that is really in the shitter right now. Fuck you, "Bear Story." I didn't even like "Sanjay's Super Team." Fuck you, Oscars for giving statues to the people I like.
Accuracy: 7/12
10:12: ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted Winner: Inside Out
Actual Winner: Inside Out
This Toy Story (1995) bit actually isn't that great. Can you imagine if this actually went to Boy and the World or When Marnie Was There or some other ridiculous flick that no one saw? With Pixar actually having a slam dunk this year (correction: ONE slam dunk this year), this is a no-brainer category.
Accurracy: 8/13
10:14: The preemptive bleep of Kevin Hart's "Congratulations" to all black actors not nominated is more an indicator of the Academy's racism than anything else. We've also got a guarantee that there's going to be a token black nominee in every category from now until forever. #OscarsSoBlack
10:22: Kate Winslet with glasses is literally Superman. I cannot recognize her.
10:33: ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Predicted Winner: Stallone
Actual Winner: Mark Rylance
Patricia Arquette...what the hell, why are you so monotone? I'm curious if Tom Hardy will become Leo in a few years - criminally underacknowledged. Then again, this is his first nomination, which is crazy. You know, Stallone's Rocky is always Rocky, but he does have this very natural, humble cadence that's so damn warm in Creed. But nevermind that shit, Mark Rylance, by far the most no-name dude here wins for a movie that no one saw or cared about. I don't really think this is earned. Stallone losing is baffling. For the second year in a row the Academy blows its chance to honor a career and won't get another chance too. And I'm crashing hard now. Then again, Expendables 4 (2017)...
Accuracy: 8/14
10:40: DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
"Body Team 12"
"Chau, beyond the Lines"
"Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah"
"A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
"Last Day of Freedom"
Predicted Winner: "Body Team 12"
Actual Winner: "A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness"
This is a great bit by Louis C.K. about how the doc short winners will prize their Oscar more than anything else because they're going to be poor forever. As for my predictions, well hell, this is always a total crapshoot. That magical 2014 where I got 20/24 categories correct was mostly fueled by my random slaughtering of the Short Subject categories. Fuck my life.
Accuracy: 8/15
I didn't even pay attention to any of these nominees or what this movie was about. Seemed important.
10:44: DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted Winner: Amy
Actual Winner: Amy
Dev Patel, you've changed, brother. You know, after actually looking at clips from all the other nominees it's totally clear that Amy was the least important doc that mostly just got nominated and won based off its celebrity notoriety. Thanks, at least, in a self-indulgent sense, that this is a lock that I actually won. You know, I remember this happening last year - this post devolved into desperate tumbling and grasping at any kind of redemption. Sick.
Accuracy: 9/16
10:54: Totally just tuned out while reading this.
10:55: I'm sure he'll be fine, but when I think in memoriam, I think Dave Grohl.
10:58: First and only Zoolander (2001) clip that will ever be played at an Academy Award ceremony for David Bowie's in memoriam.
11:04: "Loved you in Madagascar!" - Jacob Tremblay
11:06: SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
"Ave Maria"
"Day One"
"Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)"
"Shok"
"Stutterer"
Predicted Winner: "Ave Maria"
Actual Winner; "Stutterer"
Fuck you, "Stutterer." Dive bombing hard right now after being 7/8 at one point. I blame Mark Rylance.
Accuracy: 9/17
11:09: FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted Winner: Son of Saul
Actual Winner: Son of Saul
I'm weirdly a big Lee Byung-hun fan, actually. Anyway, thank goodness this went my way - maybe we can buck a trend and run through all the major acting and directing awards without much of a hitch. There aren't supposed to be much dumbness in the music categories, but who knows. I'm predicting a 15/24 finish right now.
Accuracy: 10/18
11:10: Lou Gosset Jr stands for Joe Biden.
11:11: I'm all for this, Joe, but where is this anti-sexual abuse PSA coming from? Odd plug then right into a charming Lady GaGa song. Lots of high profile gigs for the GaGa lately. Time to finish that Revenant article.
11:15: Is "Till It Happens to You" a sexual abuse thing? I'm so uninformed.
11:23: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner: The Hateful Eight
Actual Winner: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
"Oscar-nominated composer, Pharrell" What. I can't even register or recognize Mark Rylance's face. Ennio Morricone turns 106 years old this year. This is a great award for him. I'm surprised Quentin isn't there to accept on his behalf. I love how he doesn't give a shit about speaking in English. Roger Deakins looks like Dick Van Dyke.
Accuracy: 11/19
11:27: MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” SPECTRE
Predicted Winner: "Til It Happens To You"
Actual Winner: "Writing's On the Wall"
Ugh, this is just making me think of "Glory" last year, which was the greatest Oscar Song Performance ever. It's a total thing among me and my friends to just play "Glory" and cry from time to time. Isn't it kind of horseshit that the Academy just decided to only play the three songs made by popular contemporary artists? Anyway, damnation Sam Smith. A Bond song wins again, and we avoid Lady GaGa, Oscar Winner. She better get her agent on that case.
Accuracy: 11/20
11:28: ALI G!!! Lol is he doing the Mexico City 1968 one glove thing. Thanks for being there, Olivia Wilde.
11:39: DIRECTING
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abramson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Predicted Winner: Iñárritu
Actual Winner: Alejandro
Obviously, in the process of making movies, Directing comes before acting. Obviously. Anyway, I now at worst tie my lowest ever predictions, way back in 2010. Alejandro "Speedy" Gonzalez Iñárritu wins for a second time in as many years for two extremely different films, which is downright amazing. The Revenant could pull off a very late run here and now Best Picture isn't as clear cut for sure. I love winners who talk through the music without giving a shit at all.
Accuracy: 12/21
11:42: At this point I'd actually be very surprised if The Big Short wins. It seems to be Mad Max or The Revenant's night, although it did pick up the Adapted Screenplay Award. I'm just not feeling it. We'll see I guess.
11:48: ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Predicted Winner: Brie Larson
Actual Winner: Brie Larson
I don't know why I hate Eddie Redmayne so much. Maybe because he's a totally innocuous actor who's completely undistinctive that beat out the incredible job Mike Keaton did last year. Or maybe it's just residual Les Miserables (2012) annoyance. And Brie Larson will always be that girl from 21 Jump Street (2012) to me. Channing and Jonah need to catch up so that film can boast three Oscar winners on the cover. I at least now can't do worse than last year.
Accuracy: 13/22
Two more categories to go, let's list them now:
11:56: ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Predicted Winner: Leo
Actual Winner: LEO
It's weird that no nominee this year acted in a film set in the current year. There literally isn't anything I can say that hasn't already been said a dozen times about this performance - how it's more gross than great and more a way to honor everything he's done than just this grueling film. But, whatever, whether or not he's truly been "pursuing" this for years, it's nice that he finally has a little gold man for his shelf. And lols at Leo of course plugging his climate change thing. He's super into that. Hopefully this speech will stop our reliance on carbon fuels.
Accuracy: 14/23
12:02 AM: BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Actual Winner: Spotlight
Well it's been another long, pointless season that ends with me pretty disappointed in myself. I can't say Spotlight's win is totally unexpected. It was the early favorite and lately seemed to be in the running with The Big Short, with The Revenant nipping at its heels and even Mad Max looking for a possible upset tonight. But in the end the early favorite pulls it off. I thought about picking it, but was pretty sure that the winner would be the opposite of whichever film I picked. That's very much the case here.
12:04: Final Tally: 14/24
14/24 is disappointing, although better than last year. I equal my 2011 and 2013 tally, which is apparently my lucky number. Breaking down my misses are all three short subjects, both sound categories, the Best Picture toss-up, upsets in Supporting Actor and Original Song and random misses in Costume and Visual Effects. I can and will do better!
Actual Winner: Alejandro
Obviously, in the process of making movies, Directing comes before acting. Obviously. Anyway, I now at worst tie my lowest ever predictions, way back in 2010. Alejandro "Speedy" Gonzalez Iñárritu wins for a second time in as many years for two extremely different films, which is downright amazing. The Revenant could pull off a very late run here and now Best Picture isn't as clear cut for sure. I love winners who talk through the music without giving a shit at all.
Accuracy: 12/21
11:42: At this point I'd actually be very surprised if The Big Short wins. It seems to be Mad Max or The Revenant's night, although it did pick up the Adapted Screenplay Award. I'm just not feeling it. We'll see I guess.
11:48: ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Predicted Winner: Brie Larson
Actual Winner: Brie Larson
I don't know why I hate Eddie Redmayne so much. Maybe because he's a totally innocuous actor who's completely undistinctive that beat out the incredible job Mike Keaton did last year. Or maybe it's just residual Les Miserables (2012) annoyance. And Brie Larson will always be that girl from 21 Jump Street (2012) to me. Channing and Jonah need to catch up so that film can boast three Oscar winners on the cover. I at least now can't do worse than last year.
Accuracy: 13/22
Two more categories to go, let's list them now:
11:56: ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Predicted Winner: Leo
Actual Winner: LEO
It's weird that no nominee this year acted in a film set in the current year. There literally isn't anything I can say that hasn't already been said a dozen times about this performance - how it's more gross than great and more a way to honor everything he's done than just this grueling film. But, whatever, whether or not he's truly been "pursuing" this for years, it's nice that he finally has a little gold man for his shelf. And lols at Leo of course plugging his climate change thing. He's super into that. Hopefully this speech will stop our reliance on carbon fuels.
Accuracy: 14/23
12:02 AM: BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted Winner: The Big Short
Actual Winner: Spotlight
Well it's been another long, pointless season that ends with me pretty disappointed in myself. I can't say Spotlight's win is totally unexpected. It was the early favorite and lately seemed to be in the running with The Big Short, with The Revenant nipping at its heels and even Mad Max looking for a possible upset tonight. But in the end the early favorite pulls it off. I thought about picking it, but was pretty sure that the winner would be the opposite of whichever film I picked. That's very much the case here.
12:04: Final Tally: 14/24
14/24 is disappointing, although better than last year. I equal my 2011 and 2013 tally, which is apparently my lucky number. Breaking down my misses are all three short subjects, both sound categories, the Best Picture toss-up, upsets in Supporting Actor and Original Song and random misses in Costume and Visual Effects. I can and will do better!
